DENVER, Nov. 20, 2015 /PRNewswire/ — Natural gas production in the lower 48 United States averaged 71.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in October, a decline of more than 0.5 Bcf/d, or 1%, from September, according to Platts Bentek, an analytics and forecasting unit of Platts, a leading global provider of energy and commodities information.
From a broader perspective, the October production is 0.2 Bcf/d less than the August average.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its domestic production estimates for September on or around November 30, 2015.
“Almost the entirety of the October production drop can be attributed to the Southeast/Gulf and Texas regions,” said Sami Yahya, Platts Bentek energy analyst. “Production in the Southeast shed about 0.3 Bcf/d in October, a direct result of various scheduled maintenance events that curtailed offshore volumes. In Texas, production also dipped by 0.3 Bcf/d. The combined decline of both regions was slightly offset by an uptick in Rockies production of about 0.1 Bcf/d over the same time period.”
Maintenance events are more common in the months leading up to the winter, as pipeline companies try to ensure smoother operations when peak demand and constant high pipe utilization materialize, Platts Bentek said in its latest report. Historically, maintenance events or shut-ins in the Southeast and Texas would be offset, at least in part, by production in the Northeast. However, last month, the Northeast experienced its own heavy set of maintenance.
“A number of new Northeast expansion projects have come online ahead of their scheduled November release date,” explained Yahya. “But they still failed to ramp up volumes, given that the traditional winter demand surge has yet to arrive. Being the primary driver of U.S. gas production growth, the Northeast has helped U.S. production to stay afloat until now.”
A number of delays to the new expansion projects have curtailed incremental growth, and it is difficult to determine when the remaining projects that have not fully come online will start service, Yahya said.
Platts Bentek analysis suggests 2015 U.S. natural gas production will average approximately 72.2 Bcf/d, with growth occurring throughout the year. This would mark a year-on-year growth of 3.4 Bcf/d over 2014.
The Platts Bentek data analysis is based on an extensive sample of near real-time production receipt data from the U.S. lower 48 interstate pipeline system. Platts Bentek production models are highly correlated with and provide an advance glimpse of federal government statistics from the U.S. EIA.
This Platts Bentek U.S. natural gas production data estimate will be published every month covering the previous month’s output activity. Bentek’s dry gas production estimates are not observed data and are based on pipeline receipt nominations and certain state production data.
Platts acquired Bentek Energy in 2011. The analytics and forecasting unit, Platts Bentek, specializes in energy market analytics and is recognized as the industry leader in natural gas market fundamental analysis.
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