The changes will come on different fronts, natural gas and liquefied natural gas. The Canadian National Energy Board predicts that natural gas exports will fall over the next 30 years, reaching 2.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 and insignificant amounts by 2040. The decline comes mainly at the hands of vast US reserves. With Marcellus, Utica, Bakken, and other US natural gas plays providing the US with healthy reserves projected to last another 30 to 40 years, less imports cross the border into the US from Canada.
By 2040 the NEB also predicts that US exports to Eastern Canada will offset Canadian exports to the US. Meanwhile, production from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin is expected to boost Canadian domestic natural gas production. With better understanding of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling completions, the tight gas and shale gas resources mainly from the Montney Formation are expected to boost production to 18 billion cubic feet per day by 2025. Other sources of growth will come from the Alberta Deep Basin and the Horn River Basin, offsetting the decline in production from other resources.
Already pipeline exports to Canada have been overwhelmed by pipeline exports to Mexico over the past five years. The shift in trading partners has also incentivized the US LNG industry. With fifteen LNG plants proposed across the US, these exports will make use of the vast natural gas reserves to ship them off the Mexico, China, and other foreign markets.
At the same time, Canada expects to grow in its LNG industry, expecting of the 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2015, to almost 18 billion cubic feet per day in 2025. According to the NEB, they anticipate that future Canadian natural gas production growth will rely on the construction of LNG export capacity.