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Q1 2024 Earnings Season Report Card – Part 1

May 28, 2024 2:00 PM
Liam Robertson

With the majority of the companies in our dataset having now reported their Q1 2024 financial and operating results, it’s time for another entry in our Earnings Season Report Card series. The first quarter saw oil prices trend up gradually, although aggregate realized pricing was depressed compared to Q4 2023. Natural gas and NGLs trended in opposite directions, with natural gas prices declining and NGL pricing improving very slightly relative to the previous quarter. We believe this likely contributed to a general trend of reduced production and cash flow generation in Q1, although a number of companies saw improvements in both of these metrics. Capital spending increased in aggregate, however, suggesting that companies aren’t letting a somewhat muted quarter impact their budgets for the year. As per usual, we’re focusing on production and financial metrics in part 1 before moving on to per-barrel indicators in part 2. We focus primarily on the top performers for each metric over the quarter, although we do discuss industry-level averages and trends. To access data on all of the companies in our dataset, head over to BOE Intel.

Liquids Production

Q1 was a mixed bag with respect to liquids production, but the average company in our dataset saw production decrease by just under 1%. 15 out of 34 companies reported increased liquids production in the first quarter compared to Q4 2023. Pine Cliff oversaw the largest proportional increase in liquids production, boosting output by just under 63%. Part of this increase was likely related to the company’s acquisition of Certus Oil & Gas Inc., which closed in December 2023; the company announced that the acquired production of 5,300 BOE/d was 49% liquids as of September 2023. Pieridae also boosted liquids production by 25.3%, which exceeded the company’s expectations in light of a mid-March outage at the Jumping Pound processing facility as well as the lingering impact of a production shut-in at the company’s Clearwater asset. Crescent Point (now Veren), of course, benefitted from the incorporation of assets it acquired from Hammerhead. The transaction, which closed in December 2023, saw Veren absorb all of Hammerhead’s production. For context, Hammerhead’s Q3 2023 corporate liquids production was just over 22,000 BBL/d.

Company Q1 2024 (BBL/D) Q4 2023 (BBL/d) Absolute Difference (BBL/d) Percentage Change (%)
Pine Cliff 4,926 3,037 1,889 62.2
Pieridae 5,394 4,305 1,089 25.3
Crescent Point (Veren) 132,684 112,167 20,517 18.3
Yangarra 4,776 4,252 524 12.3
Obsidian Energy 22,610 20,641 1,969 9.5
Petrus Resources 3,086 2,825 261 9.2
Tourmaline 145,016 133,093 11,923 9.0
Peyto 17,145 16,175 970 6.0
Spartan Delta 12,301 11,636 665 5.7
Kiwetinohk 12,479 11,914 565 4.7
Average 94,750 95,448 -698 -0.7

Veren Production by Commodity, Q1 2022 – Q1 2024

Natural Gas Production

Unlike liquids production, natural gas production increased ever so slightly in Q1 2024. With the average company in our dataset increasing production by 0.9%, overall gas output was largely consistent with last quarter. With that said, a few companies did stand out for having reported notable gas production increases. Veren, as discussed above, likely benefitted from the integration of gas-producing assets acquired from Hammerhead. Kiwetinohk increased its gas production by 17.9%, which was potentially driven by a productive 3-well Duvernay pad that was brought on stream in the first quarter. Check out this 3-well pad on Petro Ninja here. Tourmaline, which completed its acquisition of Bonavista in November 2023, likely benefitted from the continued integration of Bonavista’s producing gas assets; the company brought 70 UWIs on stream in Q1 2024 compared to 86 in Q1 2023, suggesting that increased drilling wasn’t the root cause of the production boost.

Company Q1 2024 (MMcf/d) Q4 2023 (MMcf/d) Absolute Difference (MMcf/d) Percentage Change (%)
Crescent Point (Veren) 395 248 147 59.2
Headwater 12 8 4 43.8
Kiwetinohk 90 77 14 17.9
Tourmaline 2,682 2,543 139 5.5
Whitecap 369 352 17 4.8
Peyto 647 623 24 3.9
Obsidian Energy 70 68 2 2.9
Pine Cliff 114 110 3 2.8
Kelt Exploration 124 121 3 2.8
Spartan Delta 157 156 1 0.8
Average 402 398 4 0.9

Kiwetinohk Production by Commodity, Q1 2022 – Q1 2024

Operating Cash Flow

Despite positive oil price shifts in the quarter, overall realized commodity prices took a turn for the worse in Q1 and this has had impacts on cash flow in the industry; operating cash flow generation declined for most Canadian E&Ps. The average company in our dataset saw operating cash flow decline by 33.9% compared to Q4 2023, the largest decline we’ve observed since Q1 2023. A few companies bucked this trend, however, with a handful of gas-weighted producers growing cash from operations. Yangarra and Kiwetinohk led the industry, achieving quarter-over-quarter growth of 31.7% and 27.5% respectively. Yangarra grew its corporate production slightly compared to Q4 2023, but the major difference maker was its increased liquids portion of production; this figure rose from 38% in Q4 2023 to 43% last quarter. Kiwetinohk, as shown above, benefitted from an increase in corporate production and a decrease in operating costs. In aggregate, Kiwetinohk grew its production by 11.7% while reducing its operating costs by 18.6% quarter-over-quarter. Peyto also increased its operating cash flow by 13.6%, which we suspect was driven in part by the incorporation of assets obtained through its acquisition of Repsol (which closed in October 2023).

Company Q1 2024 ($) Q4 2023 ($) Absolute Difference ($) Percentage Change (%)
Yangarra 22,124,000 16,798,000 5,326,000 31.7
Kiwetinohk 75,183,000 58,946,000 16,237,000 27.5
Peyto 196,829,000 173,247,000 23,582,000 13.6
Vermilion 354,295,000 343,831,000 10,464,000 3.0
Kelt Exploration 62,493,000 62,477,000 16,000 0.0
Spartan Delta 48,151,000 51,289,000 -3,138,000 -6.1
ARC Resources 636,300,000 698,900,000 -62,600,000 -9.0
Rubellite 16,497,000 18,963,000 -2,466,000 -13.0
Surge Energy 66,785,000 79,712,000 -12,927,000 -16.2
Imperial 1,076,000,000 1,311,000,000 -235,000,000 -17.9
Average 401,795,722 608,255,306 -206,459,583 -33.9

Yangarra Corporate Production & Operating Cash Flow, Q1 2018 – Q1 2024

Net Debt

Overall, net debt was largely unchanged this quarter; the average company recorded a modest 0.2% net debt increase through Q1. Of the companies for which we have net debt data available, 15 companies decreased net debt while 19 increased it. Vermilion recorded the largest proportional decrease in its net debt, which declined by 12.4% quarter-over-quarter. Per the company’s May 2024 corporate presentation, production in the first quarter came in at the upper end of its guidance range and helped finance a reduction in net debt that carried it below Vermilion’s $1 billion net debt target. Gear Energy and Rubellite also reduced their net debt balances by over 10% in the first quarter. Gear, which considers its low relative debt level to be a key strength, has predicted that the company will achieve a 0.24x year end Net Debt to funds from operations (FFO) ratio. On the other side of the spectrum, Kelt Exploration boosted its net debt by almost 146% in Q1 2024 (although its debt levels still remain relatively low). This is likely related to a notable boost in its 2024 budget in comparison to its spending in 2022 and 2023; Kelt’s drilling and completions budget for 2024 is 14% greater than its 2023 spending, while its projected 2024 spending on land, seismic and A&D is $16.4 million higher than in 2023. Cardinal and NuVista both reported quarter-over-quarter net debt increases of over 42%. Cardinal had expenditures related to its Saskatchewan thermal project, while NuVista’s net debt increase still places it well within its target of a net debt to adjusted funds flow ratio of less than 1.0x.

Company Q1 2024 ($) Q4 2023 ($) Absolute Difference ($) Percentage Change (%)
Top 5 Reductions
Vermilion 944,496,000 1,078,567,000 -134,071,000 -12.4
Gear Energy 12,462,000 14,099,000 -1,637,000 -11.6
Rubellite 45,499,000 50,984,000 -5,485,000 -10.8
Yangarra 109,148,000 118,646,000 -9,498,000 -8.0
Perpetual 19,861,000 21,566,000 -1,705,000 -7.9
Top 5 Increases
Crew Energy 147,689,000 117,355,000 30,334,000 25.8
Advantage Energy 279,963,000 222,022,000 57,941,000 26.1
NuVista 261,171,000 183,551,000 77,620,000 42.3
Cardinal Energy 119,716,000 83,650,000 36,066,000 43.1
Kelt Exploration 31,961,000 12,997,000 18,964,000 145.9
Average 1,430,877,412 1,427,896,294 2,981,118 0.2

Vermilion Net Debt & Capital Expenditures, Q1 2018 – Q1 2024

Capital Expenditures

Despite a drop in operating cash flow generation, most companies surged ahead with their capital programs in the first quarter. Compared to Q4 2023, the average company increased capital spending by 5.6%. Of the 35 companies for which we have capital expenditure data availability, 19 companies increased spending quarter-over-quarter. We were particularly interested to see that 5 companies more than doubled their Q4 2023 Capex numbers, with another 3 companies achieving increases of over 90%. This was NuVista’s largest quarter of capital spending since Q1 2023 and its second largest quarter ever. According to the company’s Q1 2024 MD&A, almost 70% was “allocated to drilling and completion related activities, resulting in 9 (9.0 net) wells drilled and 18 (18.0 net) wells completed“. Bonterra also recorded its highest capital expenditures figure since Q1 2023. Of the total of $32.9 million, $27.0 million was directed to “the drilling of 11 gross (10.5 net) operated wells and the completion, and the equip and tie-in of gross 11 (10.0 net) operated wells“. Baytex, which increased its capital spending by 107.1% in Q1, allocated over 60% of its exploration and development budget south of the border. As always, please note that we do not include acquisitions and dispositions (A&D) in the capital expenditures figures in our dataset.

Company Q1 2024 ($) Q4 2023 ($) Absolute Difference ($) Percentage Change (%)
NuVista 187,856,000 69,258,000 118,598,000 171.2
Bonterra Energy 32,924,000 14,009,000 18,915,000 135.0
Baytex 412,551,000 199,214,000 213,337,000 107.1
Cardinal Energy 32,942,000 16,012,000 16,930,000 105.7
Advantage Energy 80,134,000 39,938,000 40,196,000 100.6
Athabasca 76,011,000 38,752,000 37,259,000 96.1
Whitecap 393,200,000 200,500,000 192,700,000 96.1
Headwater 65,267,000 33,800,000 31,467,000 93.1
Crescent Point 413,300,000 278,900,000 134,400,000 48.2
Crew Energy 77,161,000 53,165,000 23,996,000 45.1
Average 244,907,800 231,937,657 12,970,143 5.6

NuVista Operating Cash Flow & Capital Expenditures, Q1 2018 – Q1 2024

To dive in to these results further, check out BOE Intel.

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