Oil prices rallied more than 1% as futures opened Sunday night, after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase of 137,000 bbl/d, far below the 500,000 bbl/d hike speculated by media reports last week. The decision follows OPEC+’s denial of earlier rumors about a half-million-barrel boost, reinforcing its commitment to gradual, coordinated adjustments. The next OPEC+ policy meeting is scheduled for November 2.
Analysts noted that the decision reflects both supply-side discipline and awareness of uneven demand growth across key markets. With production capacity constraints still affecting several members, the actual increase in physical supply may prove even smaller than the headline figure.
Reports suggested the meeting lasted only 9 minutes, indicating that all members were aligned. Amena Bakr, Head of Middle East Energy & OPEC+ Insights at Kpler, reported on X that discussions centered on a 137,000 bbl/d increase the whole time.
During today’s OPEC+ 8 meeting, Saudi Energy MinisterPrince Abdulaziz bin Salman asked Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak whether any proposals had been discussed apart from the planned 137,000 b/d increase for November. Novak responded that the discussions focused…
— Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr) October 5, 2025