Perpetual Energy Inc. releases 2012 year-end reserves

Perpetual Energy Inc. (“Perpetual”, the “Corporation” or the “Company”) is pleased to release a summary of the Company’s year-end 2012 reserves as reported by the independent engineering firm McDaniel and Associates Consultants Ltd. (“McDaniel”).

YEAR-END 2012 RESERVES

2012 Year-End Reserve Highlights

• Perpetual added 19.5 MMBoe of proved and probable reserves in 2012, excluding production, net dispositions and downward technical revisions related to lower commodity price forecasts. Reserve additions and net positive technical revisions due to performance offset 2012 production of 7.4 MMBoe by 265 percent. Reserve additions offsetting production were a result of total exploration and development capital spending of $79.8 million .
• After net dispositions of 11.3 MMBoe, production of 7.4 MMBoe and negative revisions due to commodity prices of 6.6 MMBoe in 2012, proved and probable reserves decreased just 5.8 MMboe (7 percent) from 80.8 MMBoe at year-end 2011 to 75.0 MMBoe. Proved reserves also decreased seven percent to 36.3 MMBoe at year-end 2012.
• The majority of the reserve additions were related to activities driven by Perpetual’s asset base transformation and diversification strategy, adding natural gas and natural gas liquids (“NGL”) reserves in the Alberta deep basin and heavy oil reserves in eastern Alberta. At year-end 2012, oil and NGL represent 13.4 percent of Perpetual’s total proved and probable reserves (14.2 percent of proved), up from 10 percent (12 percent of proved) at year-end 2011.
• Negative revisions due to low natural gas prices of 6.6 MMBoe occurred throughout Perpetual’s eastern Alberta shallow gas asset base but most significantly impacted probable undeveloped reserves recognized in the Viking formation. These negative reserve revisions also included the reduction of $63 million of future development capital (“FDC”) to bring Viking reserves to production.
• Including changes in FDC; Perpetual realized finding and development costs (“F&D”) of $11.15 per Boe on a proved and probable reserve basis in 2012.
• Since proceeds from dispositions exceeded exploration and development capital spending, Perpetual’s realized finding, development and acquisition costs (“FD&A”), including changes in FDC, was ( $13.11 ) per Boe on a proved and probable basis.
• Perpetual’s reserve replacement ratio for 2012 was 237 percent on a proved and probable reserves basis. The reserve replacement ratio, including both performance and price related technical revisions was 175 percent on a proved and probable basis.
• Perpetual’s reserve to production ratio (“reserve life index” or “RLI”) increased to 11.0 years from 9.7 years on a proved and probable reserves basis (increased to 6.1 years from 5.3 years on a proved reserves basis) at year-end 2012.
• Perpetual’s reserve-based net asset value (“NAV”) at year-end 2012 was estimated at $1.84 per Share discounted at eight percent.

Reserves Disclosure

Company interest reserves included herein are before royalty burdens and including royalty interests. Reserves information is based on an independent reserves evaluation report prepared by McDaniel with an effective date of December 31, 2012 (the “McDaniel Report”), and has been prepared in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 (“NI 51-101”) using McDaniel’s forecast prices and costs. Complete NI 51-101 reserves disclosure including after-tax reserve values, reserves by major property and abandonment costs will be included in Perpetual’s Annual Information Form (“AIF”), which will be filed in March 2013 .

Perpetual’s aggregate proved and probable reserves are reported in barrels of oil equivalent (Boe). Boe may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. In accordance with NI 51-101 a Boe conversion ratio for natural gas of 6 Mcf: 1 Boe has been used, which is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not necessarily represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. As the value ratio between natural gas and crude oil based on the current prices of natural gas and crude oil is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.

Perpetual’s reserves at year-end 2012 are summarized below.

The proved producing reserves of 22.3 MMBoe comprise 62 percent of the total proved reserves. Proved and probable developed reserves of 40.8 MMBoe represent 54 percent of the total proved and probable reserves. Total proved reserves account for 48 percent of the total proved and probable reserves.

McDaniel estimates the FDC required to convert proved and probable non-producing and undeveloped reserves to prove producing reserves at $381.8 million . The table below summarizes the FDC estimated by McDaniel by play type to bring non-producing and undeveloped reserves to production.

On December 18, 2012 , Perpetual announced the Company had entered into a definitive purchase and sale agreement, along with its partner, to jointly divest its Elmworth, Alberta property for gross proceeds of $155 million , $77.5 million net to Perpetual, subject to certain closing adjustments and transaction costs.  This transaction is currently expected to close on or prior to March 1, 2013 . At year-end 2012, McDaniel estimated proved and probable undeveloped reserves of 10.6 MMBoe net to Perpetual at Elmworth. Furthermore, McDaniel estimated $122.5 million of FDC would be required to convert these undeveloped reserves to producing reserves.

Reserves Reconciliation

In 2012, Perpetual executed a successful asset disposition program which resulted in net proceeds of $167.2 million . Reserve reductions as a result of dispositions were 11.3 MMBoe.

Discoveries and extensions accounted for 17.5 MMBoe of reserve additions and were related to activities driven by Perpetual’s asset base transformation and diversification strategy, adding natural gas and NGL reserves in the Alberta deep basin and heavy oil reserves in eastern Alberta. At year-end 2012, oil and NGL represent 13.4 percent of Perpetual’s total proved and probable reserves (14.2 percent of proved), up from 10 percent (12 percent of proved) at year-end 2011.

Year over year, McDaniel recorded net positive technical revisions related to performance totaling 2.0 MMBoe on a proved and probable basis. These net positive technical revisions were due to improved performance and reduced operating costs in a number of areas.

Positive technical revisions were offset by a substantially reduced natural gas price forecast at year-end 2012 relative to year-end 2011, resulting in negative revisions due to economic factors of 6.6 MMBoe. Included in the downward price revisions are those future projects whose return on investment is negative at the current price forecast. This included approximately 5.4 MMBoe of proved and probable non-producing and undeveloped reserves that were no longer viewed as economic to develop, primarily in the Viking formation in eastern Alberta. The negative economic revisions also included a 1.2 MMBoe reduction in producing reserves where existing wells are now expected by McDaniel to reach the economic limits near their end of productive life earlier due to reduced future commodity price assumptions.

Estimated FDC increased $64.3 million to $381.8 million at year-end 2012, from $317.5 million at year-end 2011. Relative to year-end 2011, additional future development capital of $148.3 million is estimated to be required to develop the increased heavy oil reserves at Mannville and liquids-rich gas reserves in the Wilrich in the greater Edson area and the Montney at Elmworth. This increase was offset by reductions in FDC totaling $84.0 million , primarily related to downward reserve revisions due to low commodity prices associated with the Eastern Alberta Viking play and dispositions. The decrease in FDC related to negative commodity price-driven reserve revisions is the result of projects being deemed to be uneconomic under the current McDaniel price forecast. Perpetual believes that the underlying resource is still present and those previously identified reserves will be recognized and classified as future reserve additions if natural gas prices increase in the future.

McDaniel’s price forecast utilized in the evaluation is summarized below.

RESERVE LIFE INDEX (“RLI”)

Perpetual’s proved and probable reserves to production ratio, also referred to as reserve life index, was 11.0 years at year-end 2012 while the proved RLI was 6.1 years, based upon the 2013 production estimates in the McDaniel Report. The following table summarizes Perpetual’s historical calculated RLI.

NET PRESENT VALUE (“NPV”) OF RESERVES SUMMARY

Perpetual’s light and medium oil, natural gas and NGL reserves were evaluated by McDaniel using McDaniel’s product price forecasts effective January 1, 2013 prior to provision for financial natural gas price hedges, income taxes, interest, debt service charges and general and administrative expenses. The following table summarizes the NPV of funds flows from recognized reserves at January 1, 2013 , assuming various discount rates. It should not be assumed that the discounted future net funds flows estimated by McDaniel represent the fair market value of the potential future production revenue of the company.

At a 10 percent discount factor, the proved producing reserves comprise 44 percent of the total proved and probable value, while proved and probable producing reserves represent 58 percent of the total proved and probable value. Total proved reserves account for 54 percent of the proved and probable value.

NET ASSET VALUE (“NAV”)

The following net asset value table shows what is normally referred to as a “produce-out” NAV calculation under which the Corporation’s reserves would be produced at forecast future prices and costs. The value is a snapshot in time and is based on various assumptions including commodity prices and foreign exchange rates that vary over time. It should not be assumed that the NAV represents the fair market value of Perpetual’s Shares. The calculations below do not reflect the value of the Corporation’s prospect inventory to the extent that the prospects are not recognized within the NI 51-101 compliant reserve assessment.

In the absence of adding reserves to the Corporation, the NAV per Share will decline as the reserves are produced out. The above evaluation includes future capital expenditure expectations required to bring undeveloped reserves recognized by McDaniel that meet the criteria for booking under NI 51-101 on production. The fair market value of undeveloped land does not reflect the value of the Company’s extensive prospect inventory which will be converted into reserves and production over time through future capital investment.

FAIR MARKET VALUE OF UNDEVELOPED LAND

Perpetual’s independent third party estimate of the fair market value of its undeveloped acreage by region for purposes of the above net asset value calculation is based on recent Crown land sale activity adjusted for tenure and other considerations and is as follows:

The fair market value of Perpetual’s undeveloped land at year-end 2012 decreased by $27.9 million relative to year-end 2011. This was primarily a result of reduced acreage due to dispositions and lease expiries, offset by land acquisitions in Perpetual’s priority exploration and development areas in greater Edson and Mannville.

ABANDONMENT AND RECLAMATION COSTS

In addition to the abandonment cost estimates provided by McDaniel inclusive in their reserve assessment, Perpetual compiles annually a detailed internal estimate of the Corporation’s total future asset retirement obligation based on net ownership interest in all wells, facilities and pipelines, including estimated costs to abandon the wells, facilities and pipelines and reclaim the sites, and the estimated timing of the costs to be incurred in future periods. Pursuant to this evaluation, the estimated cost of future asset retirement obligations related to Perpetual’s proved and probable reserves and other liabilities, net of the estimated salvage value of facilities and equipment and discounted at eight percent is $80 million as at December 31, 2012 . The McDaniel Report includes an undiscounted amount of $61 million ( $32 million , discounted at eight percent), with respect to expected future well abandonment costs related specifically to proved and probable reserves and such amount is included in the values captioned “Total Proved and Probable Reserves” in the NPV of Funds Flow table (see “NPV OF RESERVES SUMMARY”).

The following table presents the estimated future asset retirement obligations and estimated net salvage values at various discount rates:

FINDING, DEVELOPMENT AND ACQUISITION (“FD&A”) COSTS

Under NI 51-101, the methodology to be used to calculate FD&A costs includes incorporating changes in future development capital required to bring the proved undeveloped and probable reserves to production. For continuity, Perpetual has presented herein FD&A costs calculated both excluding and including FDC. Changes in forecast FDC occur annually as a result of development activities, acquisitions and disposition activities, undeveloped reserve revisions and capital cost estimates that reflect the independent evaluator’s best estimate of what it will cost to bring the proved and probable undeveloped reserves on production.

The following table summarizes Perpetual’s F&D cost as well as FD&A costs, before and after the inclusion of changes in FDC. F&D costs, including changes in FDC were $11.15 per Boe on a proved and probable basis in 2012. Since net proceeds on dispositions exceeded exploration and development capital expenditures and the year over year increase in FDC, Perpetual’s FD&A costs were negative in 2012. With net dispositions of 11.3 MMBoe and net proceeds for disposition of $167.2 MM, Perpetual’s realized FD&A costs calculate to ( $13.11 ) per Boe on a proved and probable basis in 2012.

Additional Information

Perpetual will release its 2012 annual audited financial statements and management’s discussion and analysis (“MD&A”) on or about March 11, 2013 .

Unaudited financial information

Certain financial and operating information included in this press release for the quarter and year-ended December 31, 2012 , such as capital expenditures, FD&A costs, funds flow and net debt are based on estimated unaudited financial results for the quarter and year then ended, and are subject to the same limitations as discussed under “Forward-Looking Information”. These estimated amounts may change upon the completion of audited financial statements for the year-ended December 31, 2012 and changes could be material.  See “Non-IFRS Measures”.

Non-IFRS Measures

This news release includes references to financial measures commonly used in the oil and gas industry such as “funds flow”, “reserve life index” and “net debt”, which do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS“). Management believes that in addition to net income, funds flow and net bank debt are useful supplemental measures as they are a measure of a company’s ability to generate the cash necessary to repay debt or fund future growth through capital investment. However, investors are cautioned that these measures should not be construed as an alternative to net income determined in accordance with IFRS as an indication of Perpetual’s performance. The method of calculating these measures may differ from other companies and, accordingly, they may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. For these purposes, “funds flow” is defined as cash provided by operations before changes in non-cash working capital gas over bitumen royalty adjustments not yet received, settlement of decommissioning obligations and certain exploration costs and “net bank debt is defined as long-term bank debt plus working capital (adjusted for the fair value of financial instruments and future taxes). Readers are referred to advisories and further discussion on non-IFRS measures contained in the “Significant Accounting Policies and Non-GAAP Measures” section of Perpetual’s MD&A for the year-end December 31, 2011 .

Forward-Looking Information

Certain information regarding Perpetual in this news release including management’s assessment of future plans and operations may constitute forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws. The forward looking information includes, without limitation, anticipated amounts and allocation of capital spending; statements regarding estimated production and timing thereof; prospective drilling, forecast average production; completions and development activities; infrastructure expansion and construction; estimated FDC required to convert proved and probable non-producing and undeveloped reserves to proved producing reserves; anticipated effect of commodity prices on reserves; estimates of gross recoverable gas sales; estimated net asset value; prospective oil and natural gas liquids production capability; projected realized natural gas prices and funds flow; projected ending 2012 net debt; estimated asset retirement obligations; anticipated effect of commodity prices on future development capital and reserves; commodity prices and foreign exchange rates; and gas price management. Various assumptions were used in drawing the conclusions or making the forecasts and projections contained in the forward-looking information contained in this press release, which assumptions are based on management analysis of historical trends, experience, current conditions and expected future developments pertaining to Perpetual and the industry in which it operates as well as certain assumptions regarding the matters outlined above. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks, which could cause actual results to vary and in some instances to differ materially from those anticipated by Perpetual and described in the forward-looking information contained in this press release. Undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking information, which is not a guarantee of performance and is subject to a number of risks or uncertainties, including without limitation those described under “Risk Factors” in Perpetual’s MD&A for the year-ended December 31, 2011 and those included in reports on file with Canadian securities regulatory authorities which may be accessed through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com and at Perpetual’s website www.perpetualenergyinc.com). Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of risk factors is not exhaustive. Forward-looking information is based on the estimates and opinions of Perpetual’s management at the time the information is released and Perpetual disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly any such forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, other than as expressly required by applicable securities law.