In the commentary accompanying Deloitte’s December 31, 2013 forecast, Andrew Botterill, Senior Manager, Resource Evaluation & Advisory, tracks the futures trends for Henry Hub Gas, AECO Gas and WTI Oil from March 2010 through December 2013.
“The trends suggest that the long-term futures market for gas is predicting continued over-supply in North America,” Mr. Botterill comments. “The other interesting trend is the ever-decreasing value of natural gas during the last year of each dataset. The December 2013 futures price for natural gas is $6.04/Mcf. That’s a far cry from the $8.50/Mcf futures price listed three years ago.”
With respect to WTI Oil, Mr. Botterill notes the key observation is that, regardless of the starting price at the time, the long-term futures price has been in a downward trend since March 2011.
“The moral of the story,” says Mr. Botterill, “is that energy companies and investors need to plan with caution and factor in the long-term implications of their decisions. What you see today, you may not be able to realize tomorrow.”
Deloitte’s December 31, 2013 forecast shows WTI oil at US$95.00/bbl for 2014, decreasing to US$90/bbl for 2015 and eventually leveling out at US$