Canadian Discovery’s Catalyst platform delivers NPVs for type curves in key Canadian resource plays with the Sproule Play Metrics module. Each resource play is split into detailed play areas, each of which has multiple ranked type curves called tiers. NPV10 is a useful estimate of the present value within a well, area or company asset. By estimating NPVs for type curves, it’s possible to understand what a typical well is worth at each tier.
Accurate and reliable reporting on liquids is difficult to source; Sproule provides their expert opinion of NGL yields (bbl/mmcf) for a typical well in each detailed play area. Liquids yield is a major economic factor when calculating NPV10—but it’s not the whole story as lower yielding plays made our top six.
The top six Montney gas type curves by NPV10 are showing in the table and graph below. Note that Kakwa tier 8 and 9 type curves both make the top six. While these numbers are exciting, they may not be a realistic representation for each of the detailed plays since they reflect the top performing wells only. Instead it might be more meaningful to look at the representative type curve tier for each area. The representative type curve doesn’t necessarily reflect a P50 well, but rather the most common well performance in an area over the recent past.
The representative type curve tier for the play areas in question have much lower NPV10 values. The NGL yields remain constant since they are controlled by play area and not type curve. Note that there is only one representative type curve for Kawka resulting in the table and graph displaying duplicate values for that area.
One aspect this analysis shows is Kawka may provide the opportunity to produce high value wells but drilling a top tier well may not be realistic. In comparison Groundbirch East BC Upper Gas may be more likely to provide a better tier well and NPV10. These are only a few of the important parameters to consider and further analysis is needed, but the Sproule Play Metrics module in Catalyst can help.
To find out the whole story on what’s driving value in these areas, contact Canadian Discovery at info@canadiandiscovery.com.