Credit Suisse says Alberta’s move to end oil production curtailments as of December would allow producers in the country to operate projects at higher rates.
Suisse expects integrated companies Imperial Oil and Suncor to benefit from the removal of curtailment.
Both Imperial and Suncor were the most vocal critics of production curtailments; says Imperial is an overall winner on this, with their shares up nearly 2%.
Additionally, the heavy barrels Imperial Oil produces would be tailwind for Exxon Mobil’s Gulf Coast refining.
Says Canadian Natural Resources can ramp up Kirby North project, but will likely see a negative impact of wider price differentials.
They expect that Husky’s upstream volumes and downstream earnings will benefit; MEG Energy cannot ramp up without higher capex, and wider diffs will work against it.
For U.S. refiners, Suisse says Phillips 66 can use up to 450-500 millions of barrels per day (mmb/d) of Canadian crude, a major positive.
When running at full capacity, Valero can use up to 180-200 mmb/d of Western Canadian Select on the Gulf Coast, and along with HollyFrontier and PBF Energy benefit from higher supply. 29dk2902l