CALGARY, Alberta – Canadian Natural’s President, Tim McKay, commented on the third quarter results stating “The resilience of our business model, as witnessed in our third quarter 2020 results, demonstrates Canadian Natural’s competitive advantage as the strength of our long life low decline asset base allows the Company to effectively manage through commodity price cycles while preserving net asset value. Canadian Natural is focused on continuous improvement and is on track for the targeted operating cost savings in 2020 of approximately $745 million dollars. With a disciplined capital program in 2020 of approximately $2.7 billion, we have been able to maintain our production volumes, grow our dividend and keep a strong balance sheet.
In the third quarter, we increased liquids production from our North America Exploration and Production (“E&P”) assets by approximately 20% from Q2/20 levels to 494,952 bbl/d and achieved record daily thermal in situ production in the quarter of 287,978 bbl/d, while achieving low thermal operating costs of $7.85/bbl (US$5.89/bbl). These results were achieved as we successfully executed on our curtailment optimization strategy while we conducted planned maintenance and turnaround activities in our Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading segment.
Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) performance remains a priority and investments in improving environmental performance and reducing our environmental footprint continue in the current pricing environment. We recently released our 2019 Report to Stakeholders, which highlights our commitment to ESG excellence and reducing our environmental footprint.
Subsequent to quarter end, the acquisition of Painted Pony Energy Ltd. (“Painted Pony”) closed on October 6, 2020. With a significant amount of pre-built infrastructure, these high quality assets in the Townsend areas of Northeast British Columbia complement our already high quality natural gas asset base in Western Canada. The Company’s natural gas production, targeted at over 1.6 Bcf/d in the fourth quarter, and associated natural gas liquids is forecast to generate approximately $1.2 billion in annualized operating cash flow at current strip pricing.”
Canadian Natural’s Chief Financial Officer, Mark Stainthorpe, added, “Our unique and diversified asset base allows us to generate significant free cash flow above our disciplined capital program and maintain our dividend payment level, unchanged through the commodity price cycle. In the third quarter, we generated approximately $1.74 billion in adjusted funds flow and approximately $467 million in free cash flow, after capital expenditures and dividend payments, reflecting the flexibility and strength of our long life low decline asset base.
The Company maintains a flexible and disciplined capital allocation strategy, with a focus on maintaining a strong and resilient financial position throughout the commodity price cycle. In the third quarter we allocated our free cash flow to the balance sheet, contributing to a significant reduction in net debt of approximately $1.1 billion. Including committed and undrawn credit facilities, cash balances and short-term investments, the Company had significant liquidity available at September 30, 2020 of approximately $4.2 billion.
Our effective and efficient operations along with our low cost structure drives our industry leading break-even of WTI US$30-$31 per barrel to cover sustaining capital and current dividend payment levels. Our low break-even maximizes netbacks, ultimately increasing free cash flow and creating value for our shareholders.”
QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
| Three Months Ended | Nine Months Ended | |||||||||||||||||||||
| ($ millions, except per common share amounts) | Sep 30 2020 |
Jun 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
Sep 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
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| Net earnings (loss) | $ | 408 | $ | (310 | ) | $ | 1,027 | $ | (1,184 | ) | $ | 4,819 | ||||||||||
| Per common share | – basic | $ | 0.35 | $ | (0.26 | ) | $ | 0.87 | $ | (1.00 | ) | $ | 4.04 | |||||||||
| – diluted | $ | 0.35 | $ | (0.26 | ) | $ | 0.87 | $ | (1.00 | ) | $ | 4.03 | ||||||||||
| Adjusted net earnings (loss) from operations (1) | $ | 135 | $ | (772 | ) | $ | 1,229 | $ | (932 | ) | $ | 3,109 | ||||||||||
| Per common share | – basic | $ | 0.11 | $ | (0.65 | ) | $ | 1.04 | $ | (0.79 | ) | $ | 2.61 | |||||||||
| – diluted | $ | 0.11 | $ | (0.65 | ) | $ | 1.04 | $ | (0.79 | ) | $ | 2.60 | ||||||||||
| Cash flows from (used in) operating activities | $ | 2,070 | $ | (351 | ) | $ | 2,518 | $ | 3,444 | $ | 6,375 | |||||||||||
| Adjusted funds flow (2) | $ | 1,740 | $ | 415 | $ | 2,881 | $ | 3,492 | $ | 7,773 | ||||||||||||
| Per common share | – basic | $ | 1.47 | $ | 0.35 | $ | 2.43 | $ | 2.96 | $ | 6.51 | |||||||||||
| – diluted | $ | 1.47 | $ | 0.35 | $ | 2.43 | $ | 2.96 | $ | 6.50 | ||||||||||||
| Cash flows used in investing activities | $ | 643 | $ | 693 | $ | 908 | $ | 2,195 | $ | 6,401 | ||||||||||||
| Net capital expenditures (3) | $ | 771 | $ | 421 | $ | 963 | $ | 2,030 | $ | 6,065 | ||||||||||||
| Daily production, before royalties | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Natural gas (MMcf/d) | 1,362 |
1,462 | 1,469 | 1,421 |
1,504 | |||||||||||||||||
| Crude oil and NGLs (bbl/d) | 884,342 |
921,895 | 931,546 | 914,859 |
829,031 | |||||||||||||||||
| Equivalent production (BOE/d) (4) | 1,111,286 |
1,165,487 | 1,176,361 | 1,151,693 |
1,079,641 | |||||||||||||||||
(1) Adjusted net earnings (loss) from operations is a non-GAAP measure that the Company utilizes to evaluate its performance, as it demonstrates the Company’s ability to generate after-tax operating earnings from its core business areas. The derivation of this measure is discussed in the “Advisory” section of this press release.
(2) Adjusted funds flow is a non-GAAP measure that the Company considers key to evaluate its performance as it demonstrates the Company’s ability to generate the cash flow necessary to fund future growth through capital investment and to repay debt. The derivation of this measure is discussed in the “Advisory” section of this press release.
(3) Net capital expenditures is a non-GAAP measure that the Company considers a key measure as it provides an understanding of the Company’s capital spending activities in comparison to the Company’s annual capital budget. For additional information and details, refer to the net capital expenditures table in the “Advisory” section of this press release.
(4) A barrel of oil equivalent (“BOE”) is derived by converting six thousand cubic feet (“Mcf”) of natural gas to one barrel (“bbl”) of crude oil (6 Mcf:1 bbl). This conversion may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation, since the 6 Mcf:1 bbl ratio is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. In comparing the value ratio using current crude oil prices relative to natural gas prices, the 6 Mcf:1 bbl conversion ratio may be misleading as an indication of value.
OPERATIONS REVIEW AND CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Canadian Natural has a balanced and diverse portfolio of assets, primarily Canadian-based, with international exposure in the UK section of the North Sea and Offshore Africa. Canadian Natural’s production is well balanced between light crude oil, medium crude oil, primary heavy crude oil, Pelican Lake heavy crude oil, bitumen (thermal oil) and Synthetic Crude Oil (“SCO”) (herein collectively referred to as “crude oil”) and natural gas and NGLs. This balance provides optionality for capital investments, maximizing value for the Company’s shareholders.
Underpinning this asset base is long life low decline production, representing approximately 79% of the Company’s total liquids production in Q3/20, the majority of which is zero decline high value SCO production from the Company’s world class Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading assets. The remaining balance of long life low decline production comes from Canadian Natural’s top tier thermal in situ oil sands operations and the Company’s Pelican Lake heavy crude oil assets. The combination of long life low decline, low reserves replacement cost, and effective and efficient operations, results in substantial and sustainable adjusted funds flow throughout the commodity price cycle.
In addition, Canadian Natural maintains a substantial inventory of low capital exposure projects within the Company’s conventional asset base. These projects can be executed quickly and, in the right economic conditions, provide excellent returns and maximize value for shareholders. Supporting these projects is the Company’s undeveloped land base which enables large, repeatable drilling programs that can be optimized over time. Additionally, by owning and operating most of the related infrastructure, Canadian Natural is able to control major components of the Company’s operating costs and minimize production commitments. Low capital exposure projects can be quickly stopped or started depending upon success, market conditions or corporate needs.
Canadian Natural’s balanced portfolio, built with both long life low decline assets and low capital exposure assets, enables effective capital allocation, production growth and value creation.
| Drilling Activity | Nine Months Ended Sep 30 | |||||||
| 2020 | 2019 | |||||||
| (number of wells) | Gross | Net | Gross | Net | ||||
| Crude oil | 43 | 37 | 80 | 74 | ||||
| Natural gas | 25 | 21 | 21 | 15 | ||||
| Dry | — | — | 3 | 3 | ||||
| Subtotal | 68 | 58 | 104 | 92 | ||||
| Stratigraphic test / service wells | 426 | 372 | 411 | 358 | ||||
| Total | 494 | 430 | 515 | 450 | ||||
| Success rate (excluding stratigraphic test / service wells) | 100 | % | 97 | % | ||||
North America Exploration and Production
| Crude oil and NGLs – excluding Thermal In Situ Oil Sands | |||||||||
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Three Months Ended | Nine Months Ended | |||||||
| Sep 30 2020 |
Jun 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
Sep 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
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| Crude oil and NGLs production (bbl/d) | 206,974 | 200,699 | 244,267 | 212,064 | 234,944 | ||||
| Net wells targeting crude oil | — | 2 | 33 | 30 | 70 | ||||
| Net successful wells drilled | — | 2 | 33 | 30 | 68 | ||||
| Success rate | — | 100 | % | 100 | % | 100 | % | 97 | % |
| Thermal In Situ Oil Sands | ||||||
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Three Months Ended | Nine Months Ended | ||||
| Sep 30 2020 |
Jun 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
Sep 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
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| Bitumen production (bbl/d) | 287,978 | 212,807 | 206,395 | 243,193 | 137,124 | |
| Net wells targeting bitumen | — | — | — | 6 | — | |
| Net successful wells drilled | — | — | — | 6 | — | |
| Success rate | — | — | — | 100 | % | — |
| North America Natural Gas | ||||||||||
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Three Months Ended | Nine Months Ended | ||||||||
| Sep 30 2020 |
Jun 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
Sep 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
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| Natural gas production (MMcf/d) | 1,340 | 1,431 | 1,425 | 1,393 | 1,454 | |||||
| Net wells targeting natural gas | 9 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 16 | |||||
| Net successful wells drilled | 9 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 15 | |||||
| Success rate | 100 | % | 100 | % | 100 | % | 100 | % | 94 | % |
International Exploration and Production
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|
Three Months Ended | Nine Months Ended | ||||||
| Sep 30 2020 |
Jun 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
Sep 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
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| Crude oil production (bbl/d) | ||||||||
| North Sea | 21,220 | 26,627 | 27,454 | 25,186 | 26,927 | |||
| Offshore Africa | 17,537 | 17,444 | 21,227 | 16,977 | 22,341 | |||
| Natural gas production (MMcf/d) | ||||||||
| North Sea | 5 | 15 | 20 | 14 | 24 | |||
| Offshore Africa | 17 | 16 | 24 | 14 | 26 | |||
| Net wells targeting crude oil | — | — | 3.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | |||
| Net successful wells drilled | — | — | 3.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | |||
| Success rate | — | — | 100 | % | 100 | % | 100 | % |
North America Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading
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Three Months Ended | Nine Months Ended | ||||||||
| Sep 30 2020 |
Jun 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
Sep 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
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| Synthetic crude oil production (bbl/d) (1) (2) | 350,633 | 464,318 | 432,203 | 417,439 | 407,695 | |||||
(1) SCO production before royalties and excludes volumes consumed internally as diesel.
(2) Consists of heavy and light synthetic crude oil products.
MARKETING
| Three Months Ended | Nine Months Ended | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Sep 30 2020 |
Jun 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
Sep 30 2020 |
Sep 30 2019 |
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| Crude oil and NGLs pricing | |||||||||||||||||||||
| WTI benchmark price (US$/bbl) (1) | $ | 40.94 | $ | 27.85 | $ | 56.45 | $ | 38.30 | $ | 57.06 | |||||||||||
| WCS heavy differential as a percentage of WTI (%) (2) |
22 | % | 41 | % | 22 | % | 36 | % | 21 | % | |||||||||||
| SCO price (US$/bbl) | $ | 38.61 | $ | 23.28 | $ | 56.87 | $ | 35.11 | $ | 56.36 | |||||||||||
| Condensate benchmark pricing (US$/bbl) | $ | 37.55 | $ | 22.19 | $ | 52.00 | $ | 35.10 | $ | 52.79 | |||||||||||
| Average realized pricing before risk management (C$/bbl) (3) | $ | 40.14 | $ | 18.97 | $ | 55.19 | $ | 28.91 | $ | 57.49 | |||||||||||
| Natural gas pricing | |||||||||||||||||||||
| AECO benchmark price (C$/GJ) | $ | 2.03 | $ | 1.81 | $ | 0.99 | $ | 1.96 | $ | 1.31 | |||||||||||
| Average realized pricing before risk management (C$/Mcf) | $ | 2.31 | $ | 2.03 | $ | 1.64 | $ | 2.19 | $ | 2.24 | |||||||||||
(1) West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”).
(2) Western Canadian Select (“WCS”).
(3) Average crude oil and NGL pricing excludes SCO. Pricing is net of blending costs and excluding risk management activities.
FINANCIAL REVIEW
The Company continues to implement proven strategies including its disciplined approach to capital allocation. As a result, the financial position of Canadian Natural remains strong. Canadian Natural’s adjusted funds flow generation, credit facilities, US commercial paper program, access to capital markets, diverse asset base and related flexible capital expenditure program, all support a flexible financial position and provide the appropriate financial resources for the near-, mid- and long-term.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE (“ESG”) HIGHLIGHTS
Canada and Canadian Natural are well positioned to deliver responsibly produced energy the world needs through leading ESG performance.
In September 2020, Canadian Natural published its 2019 Stewardship Report to Stakeholders, which is available on the Company’s website at https://www.cnrl.com/report-to-stakeholders. The report displays how Canadian Natural continues to focus on safe, reliable, effective and efficient operations while minimizing its environmental footprint. Canadian Natural outlined its pathway to lower carbon emissions and its journey to achieve its aspirational goal of net zero GHG emissions in the oil sands. Highlights from the Company’s 2019 report are as follows: