CALGARY, Alberta – The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) has published their outlook for Canadian fossil fuel use. Canada’s Energy Future 2021: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2021) projects fossil fuel use, without carbon capture and storage technology, falling by 62 per cent in the next 30 years if Canada and the world continue the current pace of increasing action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The same projection sees Canadians reducing their overall energy consumption by 21 per cent over the same period.
EF2021 explores how new technologies and climate policy will impact Canadian energy consumption and production trends over the next 30 years. The two main scenarios in the report play out differently depending on the degree of action to reduce GHG emissions.
The report shows that electricity will play a more significant role in satisfying energy needs. There is a nearly 45 per cent increase in electricity use to offset the decline in fossil fuel use. Low-cost wind and solar power provide much of the additional electricity needed to meet new demand over the projection period. Natural gas generation for electricity increasingly includes carbon capture and storage. By 2050, low and non-emitting electricity generation rises to 95 per cent from 82 per cent in 2021.
For the first time, EF2021 introduces six new scenarios to explore what Canada’s electricity system might look like in a net-zero world. Electricity will be an essential contributor on Canada’s path to reach net-zero. In these scenarios, the emissions from the electricity sector drop dramatically, with battery storage playing a significant role alongside immense growth in wind and solar. The report projects Canadian power systems to remain distinct across the country, even in a net-zero future.
Despite relatively low prices and more ambitious climate policies in the report’s main Evolving Policies Scenario, Canadian crude oil production levels are resilient to 2050. Production in 2050 is only slightly below today’s levels. These levels largely stem from the nature of oil sands facilities, which are long-lived and have low operating costs once built. Production projections suggest the pipeline system out of Western Canada would still be nearly at capacity into the mid-2030s.
While Canadians will use less fossil fuels as Canada’s energy system decarbonizes, fossil fuel demand remains in 2050. Achieving net-zero will likely require greater long-term change than shown in the Evolving Policies Scenario.
The CER produces neutral and fact-based energy analysis to inform the energy conversation in Canada. This long-term Canadian energy supply and demand outlook covers all energy commodities and Canadian provinces and territories and makes projections using economic and energy models.
Report highlights
Results from the Evolving Policies Scenario
Results from the Current Policies Scenario
Results from the Net-Zero Electricity Scenarios
Quotes
“The CER is evolving our Energy Futures series to meet the changing needs of Canadians. We are focused on providing timely and relevant information about our energy system in an engaging and transparent way. I hope this report sparks a conversation on Canadian energy.”
Gitane De Silva
Chief Executive Officer
Canada Energy Regulator
“Global and Canadian efforts to reduce GHG emissions will be a critical factor in how our energy systems evolve in the long term. Advances in clean technology and evolving government policies will be the difference-makers.”
Darren Christie
Chief Economist
Canada Energy Regulator
Associated Links
The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) works to keep energy moving safely across the country. We review energy development projects and share energy information, all while enforcing some of the strictest safety and environmental standards in the world. To find out how the CER is working for you visit us online or connect on social media
Contacts
Karen Ryhorchuk
Communications Officer
Canada Energy Regulator
Email: Karen.Ryhorchuk@cer-rec.gc.ca
Telephone: 403-671-9756