“I got a map on my lap
But I don’t know what I’m gonna do
The guy that drew it he musta been drunk too
Everything will be just fine
Once I find that correction line
Six weeks on da road and I’m gonna find my way tonight”
– Prairie/Ukrainian entertainer/recording artist Metro Rosmenko – “Six Weaks on Da Road”
My best friend in high school used to say: “There are two types of people in the world: those that are Ukrainian, and those that wish they were Ukrainian.” Beyond that tongue-in-cheek assessment, he (like many of his compatriots, including of course the incomparable Metro himself (Les Pavelick in real life)) had a wicked sense of humour with an oddly philosophical bent, such as my friend’s guidance to a rural meeting point: “Go east from town six miles. Then go north for about five miles and turn east at the correction line [correction lines are important Saskatchewan navigation points]. Keep going east about three miles. You should be there. If you aren’t, you went too far. Or not far enough.”
I throw these examples out as but a few of the thousands of laughs I had growing up thanks to a very close proximity to a lot of Ukrainian culture. Beyond a massive work ethic and prairie toughness/ingenuity, the farming immigrants were known for an interesting and usually very funny take on the world.
In addition to my admiration for their spirit and outlook on life, I can now add an admiration for jaw-dropping courage to the list. I’m not aware of anyone else anywhere that has stood up to Russia with such tenacity and ferocity. In the midst of their suffering, it is sobering and humbling to watch. A Kiev-based journalist, asked by a western interviewer what scared her most about the current situation, became mildly annoyed and said “We don’t have time to be scared of things.”
The country’s president, offered transportation out of the country by the US, replied that he didn’t need a ride, he needed ammunition.
It is tragic to watch what the population is enduring, and yet at the same time the iron will of the people to stand up to the world’s biggest bully is truly inspiring. The globe is reverberating with an endless stream of #StandWithUkraine tags and support messages, as it should. (I am also well aware that other countries/cultures are under attack at present; perhaps this situation will help the world focus attention on situations that have become chronic or lesser known.)
Beyond the psychological realm though, the courage of the Ukrainians is creating shock waves in the energy sector that will have massive global repercussions for a decade.
Had Ukraine rolled over and capitulated like expected/predicted, we might have seen global geopolitics unfold much as they did after Russia annexed Crimea. That is, a great big global shrug. Nothing of any significance happened, because everyone was too scared of Russian blowback.
Had the Ukrainians laid down their weapons and made it easy for Putin, he would remain in the driver’s seat, and there would be a lot of finger-wagging and some toothless sanctions, and we’d get back to normal. Russia would control some or all of Ukraine, and Germany would have quietly breathed a sigh of relief in that their incomprehensibly stupid energy plan – shutting down nuclear facilities, going all-in on unreliable energy sources, and outsourcing natural gas supplies – could continue knowing they still had a century of Russian gas on hand.
But Ukrainians did not roll over; they have dug in and are fighting like cornered badgers. It appears that Putin did not expect this, and as the battle grows more challenging he seems to have lost his impressive strategic planning skills in a haze of blood lust.
Of course, it isn’t over yet though, and he could still win his crazed war even if the human cost is incalculable. But should such a tragic outcome happen, the courage of the Ukrainians – their ability to hold off a massively larger power and take a heavy toll on Russian resources – has kept the fight very much alive in the global consciousness, and governments are reacting with some changes and initiatives that are going to last a very long time.
The wall being built around Putin and his country is formidable. He cannot even necessarily count on support at home – he can repress it but many Russians seem to be strongly against the war.
The sanctions being applied would have been very weak had they been implemented at hour three of the Russian invasion, but have become infinitely stronger now that the battle has raged for days. Russia is effectively being locked out of the global financial system (though they may work something out with China). Russian aircraft are being shut out of many countries’ airspace. Huge global shipping companies are boycotting Russian ports for anything except humanitarian goods.
Of significance to the energy industry, Germany has done an incredible about-face in the past few days. Halfway through February, there was raging debate as to whether natural gas would be considered ‘green’ as part of the EU’s taxonomy plans. Now, after watching the war unfold, Germany has decided that it cannot afford to be beholden to Russia for its fuel supplies, and has – almost overnight – decided to construct two new LNG import facilities.
This is a very big deal. Germany still seems committed to shutting down nuclear facilities, a bizarre plan given their low emissions dreams. They are now acknowledging a significant long term requirement for natural gas, and latest word is that they are considering keeping the nuclear plants open despite having vowed just a few weeks ago that that would never happen.
Many of us have been pointing out for years that the energy transition will not happen anywhere close to the timeline many aspire to (we may get to a low emissions world through massive CCS/hydrogen/efficiency world, but an energy transition away from hydrocarbons is not even visible as a speck on the horizon).
It has taken some ugly catalysts, but global leaders are waking up to this fact. Even Trump lectured Germany back in 2018 that they were in serious danger with such a dependence on Russian gas, and urged them to build LNG facilities. Had the message not been cloaked in Trump’s other bombastic/unhinged haranguing, maybe they would have listened.
Europe has been waking up to the challenges of abandoning hydrocarbons too soon; a natural gas shortage across the continent this winter has seen most countries introduce fossil fuel subsidies and exhibit flat out panic when, for example, the wind stopped blowing.
They are sure listening now. Sixteen years on the road and EU is going to find its (energy) way tonight.
That natural gas shortage, along with Putin’s disgusting winter pastime, is now opening a lot of eyes to the fact that hydrocarbon supply is imperative to every facet of life as we know it, and securing reliable supplies from sane countries is a very good thing indeed. Some observers deduce that these shortages are a rallying cry to build even more renewables. They almost have a valid point; these shortages are a wake up call that our fuel system is fragile, stretched, and critical, and that we need to keep developing alternatives for when the price of oil/natural gas rises to levels that are not sustainable or competitive with other reliable systems.
The price shocks are not a call to a quicker transition, because, as the world will discover when it tries, there are not enough mineral/metal/energy resources available for a rapid energy transition. A quicker transition is exactly what is not possible at present; forcing it means further global mayhem by either artificially restricting supply or putting in place policies that require minerals that simply aren’t available.
There simply aren’t enough mineral reserves in the world to build what some people think we must. That light bulb will go on too, though it will take some time due to the entrenched subset that promotes all-renewable solutions.
From a Canadian perspective, Germany’s incredible reversal in energy policy should be the proof that any sane person needs to accelerate LNG exports. It’s not even just an economic no-brainer, it is a humanitarian one as well.
Even if Putin pulls off some sort of ‘victory’, the courage of Ukrainian fighters has altered the trajectory of history and energy into a totally new path. I wonder what Metro would have said…
How did we get in such an energy quagmire? Find out how, and how to get out – pick up “The End of Fossil Fuel Insanity” at Amazon.ca, Indigo.ca, or Amazon.com. Thanks for the support.
Read more insightful analysis from Terry Etam here, or email Terry here. PS: Dear email correspondents, the email flow is wonderful and welcome, but am having trouble keeping up. Apologies if comments/questions go unanswered; they are not ignored.