U.S. natural gas production will decline in 2024 while demand will rise to a record high, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its April Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
EIA projected dry gas production will ease from a record 103.80 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 to 103.58 bcfd in 2024 as several producers reduce drilling activities after gas prices fell to a 3-1/2-year low in February and March.
In 2025, EIA projected output would rise to 104.88 bcfd.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 89.09 bcfd in 2023 to 89.92 bcfd in 2024 before easing to 89.12 bcfd in 2025.
If the projections are correct, 2024 would be the first output decline since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand for the fuel. It would also be the first time demand increases for four years in a row since 2016.
The latest projections for 2024 were higher than EIA’s March forecast of 103.35 bcfd for supply and 89.68 bcfd for demand.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 12.15 bcfd in 2024 and 14.30 bcfd in 2025, up from a record 11.90 bcfd in 2023.
That was lower than EIA’s 2024 LNG export forecast in March of 12.34 bcfd.
The agency projected U.S. coal production would fall from two-year low of 581.6 million short tons in 2023 to 485.2 million tons in 2024, the lowest since 1963, and 464.2 million tons in 2025, the lowest since 1962, as gas and renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants.
EIA reduced its forecast for U.S. coal exports by more than 30% in April and 20% in May compared with the March STEO after the Port of Baltimore was closed as a result of the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge. Baltimore is the second-largest export hub for U.S. coal.
The agency projected U.S. coal exports will fall from a five-year high of 99.8 million short tons in 2023 to 94.5 million short tons in 2024 before rising to 104.9 million short tons in 2025. Coal exports hit a record high of 125.7 million short tons in 2012.
The EIA projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels would decline from 4.807 billion metric tons in 2023 to 4.781 billion metric tons in 2024 as coal use declines, and 4.738 billion metric tons in 2025 as all fossil fuel use declines.
That compares with 4.584 billion metric tons of CO2 in 2020, which was the lowest since 1983, as the pandemic sapped demand for energy.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)