U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 2% on Monday, as an increase in feedgas to the Freeport LNG export plant and a drop in output outweighed lower demand forecasts for next week and a mild weather outlook.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.9 cents, or 2.2%, to settle at $1.791 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a two-week high at 12.8 bcfd, as the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG climbs to 0.6 bcfd from 0.1 bcfd on Friday.
Freeport said in late March it expects Trains 1 and 2 to remain shut until May for inspections and repairs, while Train 3 was operating.
“Our perception of this market remains one in which downside price risk appears limited while we also concede that our suggested upside price possibilities may require several weeks,” energy advisory Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 96.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
LSEG forecasts gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 91.7 bcfd this week to 98.2 bcfd next week.
“The demand for natural gas is kind of on the low side because the weather is pretty mild, it’s spring time, although that will change as we go into May and June,” said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday said utilities injected 50 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to the storage during the week ended April 12.
U.S. gas production has dropped by around 10% so far in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.
EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy.
Meanwhile, European gas prices declined, after gains last week, on comfortable supply and rising wind output.
(Reporting by Daksh Grover and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Alison Williams)