U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to an eight-week high on Friday as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rises and producers continue to curtail output.
That small price gain occurred despite bearish forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should reduce the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.
Another factor that has weighed on gas prices for much of this year is the tremendous oversupply of gas left in storage after a mild winter.
There is still about 10% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year even though injections have been smaller than usual in 16 of the last 17 weeks.
Analysts said those small builds happened mostly because several producers cut output this year after spot prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark fell to a 25-year low in the spring and have remained relatively low since.
Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $2.275 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since July 12 for a second day in a row.
For the week, the front-month was up about 7% after gaining about 5% last week.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has slid to an average of 102.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 2.1 bcfd over the last six days to a preliminary 11-week low of 101.7 bcfd on Friday. Analysts, however, noted that preliminary data was often revised later in the day.
Meteorologists forecast weather across the U.S. would remain mostly near normal through Sept. 9 before turning warmer than normal in the Sept. 10-21 period. Energy traders, however, noted that warmer-than-normal weather in mid-September would only average around 74 degrees Fahrenheit (23.3 degrees Celsius), down from an average of 79 F (26 C) in mid-August.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 102.5 bcfd this week to 100.5 bcfd for the next two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG’s outlook on Thursday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to an average of 13.2 bcfd so far in September, up from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to reach a three-month high of 13.4 bcfd on Friday.
Looking ahead, Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland will likely be shut for about three weeks of routine annual maintenance around Sept. 20, according to the plant’s history and notices to customers.
The U.S. became the world’s biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Gas prices were trading around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Paul Simao)