Citi forecasted on Wednesday that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s second term could exert downward pressure on oil through 2025, with Brent crude forecasted to average at $60 per barrel, primarily due to potential trade tariffs and increased oil supply.
The bank notes that Trump’s influence on OPEC+, which is made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, might prompt the producer group to taper production cuts faster, while potentially reducing geopolitical tensions and releasing some oil on water back into the market.
Trump’s policy could favor the industry through potential tax incentives for capital investment in exploration and production and could reverse the Biden era’s increases in royalties, costs for minimum bids, and lease rates on Federal lands, Citi noted.
Citi further notes that Trump’s policies could have mixed global economic growth implications, particularly negative for Europe and China, which remain exposed to the risk of trade tariffs.
This could further dent into global oil demand growth, posing downside risks to Citi’s current global oil demand growth expectations of 0.9 million barrels per day for next year.
“Still, despite the more supportive oil and gas agenda, its immediate impact on physical oil markets is likely to be limited,” Citi said.
After Republican Trump recaptured the White House with a sweeping victory on Wednesday, Brent crude oil futures settled down 61 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.92 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $71.69.
Trump’s reelection triggered a large sell-off that pushed oil prices down by more than $2 per barrel during early trade as the U.S. dollar rallied, currently at its highest level since September 2022.
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru)