The new year has begun, and there are plenty of unknowns across the oil & gas industry: OPEC+ supply uncertainty (again), Chinese oil demand worries (again), sticky inflation (also again), and other market influencing events will surely surprise through 2025 (NOTE: tariff concerns have already flared up materially since we started writing this article). Having said that, we can provide some clarity around what Canadian producers expect for the year ahead. Many E&Ps both large and small have released their 2025 guidance figures, providing an inkling of what’s in store. We’ve also treated this article as a demonstration of just how much things can change within a year; to that end, we’ve provided the initial 2024 guidance figures released by each company as a lookback review.
Production
On average, Canadian producers are forecasting boosted production relative to 2024. At the top end, CNRL is adding enough production to form a sizeable company in itself; Canada’s largest oil & gas company is adding an additional 180,000 BOE/d to the low end of its 2025 production guidance range relative to last year’s initial guidance. The vast majority of this growth is expected to come from CNRL’s strategic acquisitions, highlighted by its purchase of Chevron’s oil sands and Duvernay assets as well as other acquisitions referenced in the company’s 2025 Budget conference call that are expected to close in Q1. The company will also pursue some organic growth in the year ahead; per its 2025 guidance release, CNRL will drill 361 net wells across its crude and liquids-rich gas assets. Proportionally, Vermilion is among the producers with the largest guidance increases, posting a 44,000 BOE/d increase to the lower end of its production range. Much of this was driven by the company’s year-end blockbuster acquisition of Westbrick Energy, which significantly augmented Vermilion’s position in the Deep Basin. While the production acquired in the transaction was closer to 50,000 BOE/d, which actually exceeds the increase to its guidance, Vermilion also indicated it will look to divest non-core Canadian assets in the year ahead. Kiwetinohk is another company expecting to report a significant production ramp up, delivered through the drilling and/or completion of 21 Duvernay and Montney wells. Find full details on Kiwetinohk’s drilling program here.
Having elaborated on some of the companies forecasting production growth relative to this time last year, there are some interesting stories in the other direction as well. Paramount stands out in particular, on account of a transformational transaction with Ovintiv that it announced in November. While the company will acquire certain Horn River Basin properties in the deal, which is expected to close in Q1 2025, the traffic is primarily outbound; Paramount sold approximately 170 net sections of Montney lands accounting for 67,600 BOE/d in Q3 2024 production. For more details, see our article on the deal here. Having sold off its Karr, Wapiti and Zama assets, Paramount’s 2025 program is all about the Duvernay and includes approximately $200 million of accelerated capital deployment at Willesden Green.
| Company | Initial 2024 Production Guidance (BOE/d) | 2025 Production Guidance (BOE/d) |
| ARC Resources | 350,000 – 360,000 | 380,000 – 395,000 |
| Athabasca | 35,000 – 36,000 | 37,500 – 39,500 |
| Baytex | 150,000 – 156,000 | 148,000 – 152,000 |
| Bonterra | 13,800 – 14,200 | 14,600 – 14,800 |
| Cardinal | 22,250 – 22,750 | 21,300 – 21,700 |
| Cenovus | 770,000 – 810,000 | 805,000 – 845,000 |
| CNRL | 1,330,000 – 1,379,000 | 1,510,000 – 1,555,000 |
| Gear | 6,000 | 2,000 – 2,400 |
| Headwater | 20,000 | 22,250 |
| Imperial | 420,000 – 442,000 | 433,000 – 456,000 |
| Kelt | 36,000 – 39,000 | 44,000 – 48,000 |
| Kiwetinohk | 24,000 – 27,000 | 31,000 – 34,000 |
| Logan | 8,700 | 13,650 |
| MEG Energy | 102,000 – 108,000 | 95,000 – 105,000 |
| NuVista | 83,000 – 87,000 | 90,000 |
| Paramount | 108,000 – 116,000 | 37,500 – 42,500 |
| Pieridae | 33,000 – 34,500 | 23,000 – 25,000 |
| Saturn | 26,500 – 27,500 | 38,000 – 40,000 |
| Spartan Delta | 38, 500 – 40,500 | 40000 |
| Suncor | 770,000 – 810,000 | 810,000 – 840,000 |
| Surge | 25,000 | 22,500 (exit) |
| Tamarack Valley | 61,000 – 64,000 | 65,000 – 67,000 |
| Veren | 198,000 – 206,000 | 188,000 – 197,500 |
| Vermilion | 82,000 – 86,000 | 126,00 – 133,000 |
| Whitecap Resources | 165,000 – 170,000 | 176,000 – 180,000 |
| Yangarra Resources | Guidance Not Provided | 11,250 – 11,750 |
Capital Expenditures
As was the case with production guidance, initial capital spending forecasts for the year ahead are varied in how they relate to last year’s. CNRL, the industry bellwether, is significantly increasing its spending relative to 2024; its 2025 budget exceeds its initial 2024 budget by over $700 million. A particular highlight of its plan for the year ahead is the continuation of its capital efficient thermal in situ drilling program, including 2 SAGD pads at Kirby. Athabasca is expecting to spend an additional $160 million in 2025 relative to its initial 2024 budget release. 2024 was a a year of change for the company; Duvernay Energy Corporation, Athabasca’s 70-30 split venture with Cenovus, had just been formed in January 2024 and now accounts for $85 million of the company’s 2025 budget. Apart from DEC, Athabasca is focused “primarily on advancing progressive growth to 40,000 BBL/d at Leismer by the end of 2027“. Logan’s spending growth is another interesting story; with a $75 million boost expected over its initial 2024 figure to follow up its Simonette Montney acquisition that closed in December 2024. Per Logan’s December 2024 presentation, its 2025 budget includes $35 million directed to acquired Simonette assets including “6 drills / 4 completions and initial gathering system connections“. Cardinal, the last company to release its 2025 guidance prior to the publishing of this article, will be devoting almost two-thirds of its capital spend towards its Reford SAGD project. According to Cardinal’s budget release, first steam at Reford is expected in the third quarter.
ARC Resources, one of Canada’s largest producers, is taking a “less is more” approach to capital spending. Literally. In its 2025 budget release, the company highlights its expectation to achieve “10 per cent production growth with a concurrent 10 per cent decrease in capital expenditures compared to 2024“. According to ARC, this efficiency boost is due to a number of factors including “production contribution from Attachie, the finalization of investments into Attachie Phase I infrastructure, and improved capital efficiencies at Kakwa and Sunrise”. Similarly, Kelt Exploration posted reduced spending coupled with expanded corporate production. Most of this spending is going toward drilling and completions; Kelt expects to spend “$209.0 million drilling 30.5 net wells and completing 33.5 net wells during the year“.
| Company | Initial 2024 Capex Guidance ($m) | 2025 Capex Guidance ($m) |
| ARC Resources | 1,750 – 1,850 | 1,600 – 1,700 |
| Athabasca | 175 | 335 |
| Baytex | 1,500 – 1,560 | 1,200 – 1,300 |
| Bonterra | 90 – 100 | 65 – 75 |
| Cardinal | 185 | 191 |
| Cenovus | 4,500 – 5,000 | 4,600 – 5,000 |
| CNRL | 5,420 | 6,150 |
| Gear | 40 | 43 |
| Headwater | 180 | 225 |
| Imperial | 1,700 | 1,900 – 2,100 |
| Kelt | 350 | 328 |
| Kiwetinohk | 275 – 295 | 310 – 340 |
| Logan | 120 | 195 |
| MEG Energy | 550 | 635 |
| NuVista | 500 | 450 |
| Paramount | 830 – 890 | 760 – 790 |
| Peyto | 450 – 500 | 450 – 500 |
| Pieridae | 28 – 33 | 25 – 30 |
| Saturn | 146 | 300 – 320 |
| Spartan Delta | 130 | 300 – 325 |
| Suncor | 6,300 – 6,500 | 6,100 – 6,300 |
| Surge | 190 | 170 |
| Tamarack Valley | 450 – 500 | 430 – 450 |
| Veren | 1,440 – 1,540 | 1,480 – 1,580 |
| Vermilion | 600 – 625 | 725 – 775 |
| Whitecap Resources | 900 – 1,100 | 1,100 – 1,200 |
| Yangarra Resources | 70 | 55 – 60 |
Looking ahead
While the review above covers some of the industry’s biggest names, there’s more to be uncovered; companies including Tourmaline, Ovintiv and Strathcona are yet to release their 2025 spending plans. For keeping tabs on these updates and every other event in oil & gas, keep an eye on the BOE Report and BOE Intel.