U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025 before sliding in 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
EIA projected dry gas production will rise from 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024 to 105.9 bcfd in 2025 before sliding to 105.4 bcfd in 2026. That compares with a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 90.5 bcfd in 2024 to 91.4 bcfd in 2025 before easing back to 91.1 bcfd in 2026.
The July supply projection for 2025 was unchanged from the EIA’s 105.9 bcfd supply forecast in June, but the demand forecast was higher than 91.3 bcfd in June.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 14.6 bcfd in 2025 and 16.0 bcfd in 2026, up from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024.
With power generators expected to burn more coal this year than in 2024, the EIA projected U.S. coal production would rise from 512.1 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1964, to 519.9 million tons in 2025 before falling to 475.1 million tons in 2026, the lowest since 1962.
EIA projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels would rise from a four-year low of 4.777 billion metric tons in 2024 to 4.836 billion metric tons in 2025 as oil, coal and gas use increases, before easing to 4.775 billion metric tons in 2026 as oil, coal and gas use declines.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Franklin Paul and David Gregorio)