U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Wednesday as bearish forecasts for milder weather through early-October offset bullish forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.5 cents, or 0.2%, to $2.858 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
In the cash market, prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas and the AECO Hub in Alberta traded in negative territory because the pipelines in both regions were constrained due to maintenance and other reasons. For the Waha, that was the 10th time this year that prices traded in negative territory.
At AECO, Tuesday was the first time prices averaged below zero at minus five cents per mmBtu and Wednesday was the second at minus 18 cents, putting the contract at a record low for two days in a row, according to LSEG pricing data.
That compares with an average at AECO of $1.03 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 96 cents in 2024, and an average of $2.28 over the prior five years (2019-2023).
Traders have noted that pipelines in Alberta have become congested due in part to rising output from producers in Alberta and British Columbia in anticipation of rising demand for Canadian gas from the startup of the first 0.9-bcfd liquefaction train at the LNG Canada export plant in British Columbia.
That startup, however, was delayed by over a year, with LNG Canada sending out its first cargo this summer.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, down from a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.
On a daily basis, output was on track to fall to a preliminary 10-week low of 106.3 bcfd on Wednesday. That compares with an all-time daily high of 109.7 bcfd on July 28. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this summer. There was about 6% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least October 8.
That late season heat will likely reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 104.7 bcfd this week to 101.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG’s outlook on Tuesday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants eased to 15.7 bcfd so far in September, down from 15.8 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
In other LNG news, Venture Global LNG’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant in Louisiana was on track to pull in a record 3.4 bcfd of gas on Wednesday, according to LSEG data. LNG plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG since they use some of the fuel to run equipment.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York Editing by Peter Graff)