OPEC+ is likely to consider a larger oil production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for November at its meeting next Sunday as rising oil prices encourage the group to try to regain more market share, said two sources familiar with the talks.
OPEC+ has reversed its earlier strategy of output cuts and has already raised quotas by more than 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4% of world demand, to boost market share and following pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to lower oil prices.
Eight OPEC+ countries will hold an online meeting on October 5 to decide on November output. OPEC+ pumps about half of the world’s oil and includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies.
WINDING DOWN LAYERS OF CUTS
A 411,000 bpd jump in November would be three times the 137,000 bpd increase that OPEC+ agreed for October. A third source said November’s increase could be as much as 500,000 bpd. A final decision has not been made, the sources added.
OPEC+’s total output reductions amounted at their peak to 5.85 million bpd, made up of three different elements – voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, plus 1.65 million bpd by eight members, and another 2.0 million bpd by the whole group.
The eight producers plan to fully unwind one element of those cuts – 2.2 million bpd – by the end of September. For October, they started removing a second layer, of 1.65 million bpd, with the increase of 137,000 bpd.
Earlier on Tuesday, Bloomberg News reported OPEC+ is considering accelerating output hikes by 500,000 bpd over the next three months. On Sunday, Reuters reported that November’s output hike would likely be at least 137,000 bpd.
A separate OPEC+ ministerial panel, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, meets online on Wednesday and sources said it will discuss the producer group’s compliance with oil output quotas.
The JMMC does not hold decision-making authority over production levels, OPEC said in July.
(Reporting by Alex Lawler, Dmitry Zhdannikov and Olesya Astakhova. Editing by David Goodman and Mark Potter)