Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 by $6 each to $60 and $56 respectively, on lower-than-expected OECD stocks, even as it maintained its view of a 2026 surplus.
The bank now assumes 2026 global inventory builds in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries’ commercial stocks will only come to 19%, versus 27% previously, and it therefore expects a subset of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC8+, to begin gradually increasing production in the second quarter of 2026.
In a note dated Sunday, Goldman noted that it was maintaining its 2026 surplus forecast of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), assuming no major supply disruption and no Russia-Ukraine peace. The bank sees Brent and WTI averaging $65/bbl and $61/bbl respectively in 2027.
Separately, in a note dated Saturday, Barclays said “oil market fundamentals are completely at odds with the super glut narrative.”
Barclays said regarding oil prices that despite the 15% move higher year to date, geopolitical tensions still pose asymmetric upside risks.
Both Brent and WTI futures prices fell more than 1% on Monday as the U.S. and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks, easing fears of an escalating conflict.
“A potential 1 mb/d supply disruption–which corresponds to half of Iran’s crude exports–for 12 months would boost the fair value of oil by $8,” Barclays said.
Goldman, though, expects downside risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI for the fourth quarter of 2026 if potential sanctions relief for Iran or Russia accelerates landed stock builds and unlocks higher supply in the longer term. Brokerage/Agency Brent WTI Forecasts as of
2026 2027 2026 2027 Goldman Sachs $64 $65 $60 $61 February 23, 2026 Barclays $65 $61 February 21, 2026 Wells Fargo $65- $60- February 04, 2026 Investment $75 $70 Institute JP Morgan $58 $57 $54 $53 November 24, 2025 Macquarie $61 – $57 – September 30, 2025 Commerzbank $60 – $57 – November 11, 2025 Goldman Sachs $56 – $52 – December 18, 2025 Barclays $65 – – – December 11, 2025 HSBC $65 – $62 – April 15, 2025 BofA $60 – $57 – December 18, 2025 Citi $62 – – – December 11, 2025 Deutsche Bank $72 – – – October 13, 2025 Morgan Stanley $70 – – January 13, 2025 UBS $67 – – – January 5, 2026
* indicates end-of-period forecasts
# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision
For a table of crude price forecasts as per Reuters’ latest monthly poll, see
(Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Hugh Lawson)