When the missiles and drones eventually stop flying in the U.S.-Israeli air strikes against Iran, a new contest is likely to get underway: the scramble for contracts to rebuild damaged oil and gas infrastructure and restore shipping lanes – and influence – across the Middle East.
The destruction is not confined to Iran. At least 40 energy assets across nine countries in the Middle East have been “severely or very severely” damaged, with oil and gas fields, refineries and pipelines all expected to take some time to repair, the International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol warned on Monday. He described the crisis as worse than the two oil shocks of the 1970s, as well as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on gas, put together.
From engineering specialists lining up to rebuild smashed pipelines to logistics firms able to repair bombed-out ports and terminals, a select group of companies is poised to turn the end of the conflict into the start of a lucrative boom.
Here’s a look at which sectors and companies are potential candidates to compete for the scores of energy and port reconstruction projects likely to emerge across the Middle East once the war finally ends and the cleanup campaign begins.
ENGINEERING CONGLOMERATES
Multinational engineering giants will be among the first companies called in to Iran once the fighting stops to help assess the damage and draw up reconstruction plans.
Firms with experience in repairing and constructing oil rigs, refineries, pipelines and natural gas liquefaction plants will play a vital role in Iran’s recovery and in restoring revenue flows to the country.
Political affiliations will likely play a role in picking the ultimate winners, with both the Iranian and U.S. governments expected to have strong views on how contracts are divvied up.
Even so, after several weeks of steady bombing there should be plenty of work to go around.
Major U.S. firms with hefty oil and gas engineering and service arms include SLB (formerly Schlumberger), Halliburton, Baker Hughes and Weatherford, alongside the privately held Bechtel Corp.
On the Iranian side, the Khatam-al Anbiya Construction firm – controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – and the Mapna Group, the country’s largest contractor in oil, gas and power, are the obvious domestic candidates.
International firms including Italy’s Saipem, France’s Technip, India’s Larsen and Toubro and Dubai-based Sidara also have extensive operations in the Middle East, and so will have the contacts and experience needed to get work underway quickly.
China’s state-owned CNPC, United Arab Emirates-based NMDC and Britain’s Petrofac also have a regional presence and can be expected to compete for bids.
OIL & GAS MAJORS
Once pipelines are patched up and energy infrastructure is repaired, the world’s oil and gas producers will likely look to step in to resume extraction at well sites and return the region’s refineries and liquefied natural gas plants to full operation.
National energy firms throughout the region are likely to feature prominently, including National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), QatarEnergy, Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).
International majors including top U.S. oil producer Exxon Mobil, France’s TotalEnergies and the UK’s Shell also have extensive operations throughout the Middle East and will look to protect their positions.
The scale of destruction gives some sense of the opportunity. Israeli strikes hit four units of Iran’s South Pars gas field, while Iranian attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City caused extensive damage to LNG facilities that will take years and tens of billions of dollars to restore.
SHIPPING AND UTILITIES
The damage does not stop at the wellhead. Ports, power grids and water systems across the region have all taken hits, requiring an equally critical reconstruction effort.
Large ports in and around Iranian waters have sustained significant damage from recent bombardments, along with scores of naval and merchant vessels.
The Strait of Hormuz – a narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world’s crude oil and LNG passes – has been effectively closed, and reopening it will be a prerequisite for any return to normal global energy flows.
Restoring port facilities and clearing shipping channels will require specialists in harbour reconstruction and marine salvage, with the recovery effort expected to run for years.
On the power side, state-owned Tavanir and the Mapna Group operate most of Iran’s electricity generation and transmission networks and will anchor the domestic recovery effort.
Russia’s Rosatom, which manages Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor near recent strike zones, faces a more complex challenge, given that the Kremlin’s role in any U.S.-backed reconstruction effort is likely to be contested.
Desalination plants supplying clean water in Iran and Bahrain have also been hit, as have parts of the Israeli electricity grid, widening the scope of the rebuild well beyond Iran’s borders.
Even if the fighting stopped today, years of reconstruction work would lie ahead – and when it begins, some companies will be cleaning up in more ways than one.
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
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(Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Marguerita Choy)