Global liquefied natural gas demand is expected to rise by around 65% by 2050, driven largely by Asia as countries seek lower-emission alternatives to coal and data centres boost power demand, Shell said in an annual report on Tuesday.
Global demand is likely to reach nearly 700 million metric tons a year by that date, the world’s largest trader of the superchilled fuel said in its 2026 LNG Outlook. LNG trade, which reached 422 million tons in 2025, had been set to increase in 2026, it added. However, severe disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has shut in around one-fifth of global monthly LNG supply since the Middle East conflict began.
As a result, global LNG trade in 2026 could be similar to last year’s level if shipping through the strait returns to normal this summer, before returning to growth in 2027, Shell said.
“The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” Cederic Cremers, Shell’s president of integrated gas, said in the report.
The company said recent growth in LNG supply and regasification infrastructure had improved market resilience and helped limit the impact of the disruption to shipping through Hormuz.
In addition, the ramp-up of new liquefaction facilities in North America, improved performance at existing plants and slower Asian LNG imports have helped offset reduced supply from the Middle East. The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has disrupted the global LNG outlook, driving up prices, damaging Qatar’s export facilities and delaying new supply, casting doubt on demand from price-sensitive Asian buyers. Analysts expect higher prices to curb South Asian demand, with buyers turning to alternative LNG sources or switching to coal and domestic gas.
Asian LNG imports for the first half of 2026 are down nearly 4% to 127.70 million tons compared with the corresponding period last year, according to data from analytics firm Kpler. Although Asian LNG spot prices rose above $20 per million British thermal units at the peak of the Middle East crisis, they remained well below levels seen in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflecting greater resilience in the LNG market, Shell said.
Asian spot LNG prices were last at $15.35/mmBtu, a near four-month low as the market stayed hopeful about a peace deal to end the conflict.
NEED FOR NEW INVESTMENTS
About 180 million tons per year of new LNG supply is forecast to enter the market by 2030, improving the availability and affordability of gas and opening up demand in new markets.
Forecasts show South and Southeast Asia will account for around 40% of global LNG imports by 2050 as countries seek lower-emission alternatives to coal to meet rapidly growing energy demand. In more mature Asian markets such as Japan, data centres are emerging as a new source of power demand, the report said.
LNG will also continue to play a key role in European energy security and help balance intermittent renewable power generation as domestic gas production declines, Shell said.
To meet rising demand, significant additional investment will be needed in new LNG export projects through the 2030s and 2040s, with around 200 million tons per year of new supply required in addition to projects already under construction.
“While more investment in both supply and demand infrastructure is needed, the long-term outlook remains strong and LNG will continue to be a stabilising force in the global energy system,” Cremers said.
(Reporting by Marwa Rashad and Stephanie Kelly in London and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Jan Harvey )