U.S. power consumption, which hit its second straight annual record high in 2025, will rise further in 2026 and 2027, driven by AI-hungry data centers and electrification, the Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
The EIA projected that power demand will rise from a record 4,195 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025 to 4,268 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,391 billion kWh in 2027. Demand is surging in large part due to data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, and as homes and businesses use more electricity and less fossil fuels for heat and transportation. The EIA, however, said it lowered its forecast for electricity demand in Texas in 2027 after the state’s governor announced a pause on new data center development on August 3.
“We expect electricity load in Texas will grow by 6% in 2027, in contrast to our forecast of 14% growth in the previous STEO,” EIA said in its latest report.
The EIA forecast that power sales in 2026 will ease to 1,514 billion kWh for residential consumers but rise to 1,545 billion kWh for commercial customers and 1,064 billion kWh for industrial customers.
Those forecasts compare with all-time highs of 1,515 billion kWh for residential consumers, 1,493 billion kWh for commercial customers in 2025 and 1,064 billion kWh for industrial customers in 2000.
As renewable output rises, the EIA said the share of power generation from coal will slide from 17% in 2025 to 16% in 2026 and 15% in 2027, while the share of natural gas will hold at 40% in 2026 and 2027, the same as in 2025.
The percentage of renewable generation will rise from around 24% in 2025 to 25% in 2026 and 27% in 2027, while nuclear power’s share will hold at 18% in 2026 and 2027, the same as in 2025, according to the outlook.
The EIA projected that gas sales in 2026 would slide to 12.5 billion cubic feet per day for residential consumers and 9.5 bcfd for commercial customers but rise to 23.9 bcfd for industrial customers and 36.6 bcfd for power generation.
Those figures compare with all-time highs of 14.3 bcfd in 1996 for residential consumers, 9.9 bcfd in 2025 for commercial customers, 23.8 bcfd in 1973 for industrial customers, and 36.8 bcfd in 2024 for power generation.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Mark Porter)