U.S. natural gas futures rose nearly 9% on Monday as traders covered short positions following a slide to a one-week low in the last session, while analysts expect high price volatility in the near-term.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were 14.5 cents, or 7.2%, higher at $2.16 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 10:53 EDT. Prices hit a one-week low of $1.99 on Thursday.
Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy attributed the rebound in prices to traders covering their short positions, adding that elevated cooling demand into summer should be supportive for the market.
“We don’t expect to have the same summer heat that we had last year, but we certainly think there will be enough heat to support cooling demand and power sector demand for gas, which is well above normal.”
However, analysts said the market could see high volatility in the near-term, given the lack of clear catalysts.
While the May gas contract is holding above the $2 mark, the low demand shoulder period is likely to limit the upside, Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Prices declined more than 9% last week, which was the worst since early March, on milder weather and increased output.
Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 100 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from 98.7 bcfd in March and compared to a monthly record of 100.4 bcfd in January.
“In the U.S. gas markets, mild weather, lackluster industrial activity and concerns about a potential glut in LNG markets due to seasonally elevated storage in Europe have coincided amid relatively resilient supply and led to a sharp sell-off since the beginning of the year,” said Barclays in a note.
U.S. energy firms last week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for a second week in a row, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in its closely followed report on Thursday.