Goldman Sachs reduced its oil price forecast following decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+, to accelerate oil output increases, the bank said in a note dated Sunday.
The bank now expects Brent crude to average $60 per barrel for the rest of 2025 and $56/bbl in 2026 down by $2 from its previous estimate.
It has also cut its forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude by $3/bbl, now projecting it to average $56/bbl for the remainder of 2025 and $52/bbl in 2026.
On Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production for a second straight month, boosting output in June by 411,000 barrels per day despite falling prices and weakened demand expectations.
Goldman Sachs views the OPEC+ decision as a long-term equilibrium strategy aimed at maintaining internal cohesion and strategically regulating U.S. shale supply amid relatively low inventories.
The bank now anticipates a final OPEC+ production increase in July of 0.41 million barrels per day (mb/d), up from the previous estimate of 0.14 mb/d.
This revised forecast is based on the group’s recent decision and stronger-than-expected economic activity data, suggesting that the expected demand slowdown may not yet be evident enough for OPEC+ to slow the pace of production increases when determining July production levels on June 1, the bank noted.
Despite the relatively tight spot fundamentals, Goldman Sachs believes that the high spare capacity and high recession risk skew the risks to oil prices to the downside.
Brent crude futures were trading at $60.02 a barrel by 0802 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $56.96 a barrel.
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru, Editing by Louise Heavens)