OPEC+ oil producers are set to approve another big output boost for September as they complete both the unwinding of voluntary production cuts by eight members and the United Arab Emirates’ move to a larger quota, five sources said.
The group, which pumps about half of the world’s oil, has been curtailing production for several years to support the market. But it has reversed course this year to regain market share and as U.S. President Donald Trump demanded the group pump more to help keep gasoline prices lower.
OPEC+ began to unwind cuts of 2.17 million barrels per day (bpd) in April with a boost of 138,000 bpd. Hikes of 411,000 bpd followed in May, June and July, despite falling oil prices.
On Saturday, the group approved a 548,000 bpd jump for August.
Five sources familiar with the discussions said on Monday the group is likely to approve an increase of around 550,000 bpd for September when it meets on August 3.
That will complete the return to the market of 2.17 million bpd from the eight members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria.
It will also complete an additional 300,000 bpd output jump from the UAE as the country moves to a larger production quota, the sources said.
OPEC and the UAE did not respond to requests for comment.
The September boost if realised would bring total production increases since April to 2.47 million bpd or just under 2.5% of global demand.
The rise would see OPEC+ leader Saudi Arabia pumping close to 10 million bpd and UAE some 3.375 million bpd.
The UAE has long complained about its low production quota of around 3 million bpd, arguing it has invested heavily to be able to produce over 4 million bpd.
OPEC+ agreed to boost the UAE’s quota by 300,000 bpd in June 2024, telling the country to raise production gradually so as to complete the increase by September 2025.
OPEC+ then repeatedly postponed its own production increases and pushed back the UAE’s higher quota to September 2026.
However, it has spurred bigger production increases since May, bringing forward the return of its own barrels to the market and effectively allowing the UAE to boost output quicker, returning to the original schedule of September 2025.
“As the group has decided to accelerate the unwinding process, the UAE is benefiting from this speeding up of the quota increases,” said Richard Bronze from Energy Aspects.
OPEC+ still has separate cuts of 3.66 million bpd in place consisting of 1.66 million bpd in voluntary cuts and some 2 million bpd across all members, which expire at the end of 2026.
(Additional reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov and Maha El Dahan; writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by Jason Neely)