Growing electricity demand from AI and data centres, together with rising fuel use in Asia and European gas needs could turn an expected global liquefied natural gas supply glut into a shortage by 2030, Qatar Energy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said on Monday.
LNG coming online between 2026 and 2029 has raised concerns of a supply glut that could depress prices, with projects like Golden Pass LNG on the U.S. Gulf Coast and Qatar’s North Field Expansion expected to contribute sizeable volumes.
“We always thought the market would have some kind of oversupply between 2025-2030 (and) beyond 2030 you will have a shortage,” Kaabi said, adding that demand expectations have increased “mainly due to… AI and data center requirements”. “If all this pans out, I think there will be a shortage, instead of an oversupply by 2030,” he told LNG2026 in Doha, referring also to Europe emerging as a major LNG buyer since ending Russian gas imports after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Energy executives at the event outlined a bullish long-term outlook for LNG, although views differed on how far a wave of new supply would weigh on prices later this decade. Shell CEO Wael Sawan said “the world is adding the energy demand of Switzerland every single month” through to 2050, with LNG demand set to rise to 650–700 million metric tons by 2040 from about 415 million tons today.
ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance forecast global LNG demand doubling over the next 20 years and the market to grow to 600 million tons by 2030 and to 800 million tons by 2050, from roughly 400 million tons today.
ASIA IN FOCUS
Executives pointed to Asia as the main engine of future demand growth, led by China and India and supported by population growth elsewhere.
India’s plan to lift gas to 15% of its energy mix by 2030 from about 6–7% now should boost LNG demand, Kaabi said, adding that requirements from Asian countries including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Vietnam are “going to be huge”.
“For the more developed Asian countries like Japan and Korea, when you talk to them, data centres come up as a demand that is driving up their requirements,” he said.
Asia’s LNG demand had slipped in 2025 on price sensitivity and competition from alternative fuels, but analysts expect it to recover by 4% to 7% this year as lower prices spur additional spot purchasing, fuel switching and stockpiling.
Sawan highlighted the surging use of LNG in trucking in China and India over the past two to three years, alongside rising marine demand as ships switch from heavy fuel oil.
Meanwhile, Lance said Southeast Asia will play a major role in demand growth, as several countries in ASEAN that were net exporters are becoming net importers due to growing populations.
PRICE OUTLOOK
Some executives expected LNG prices to soften over the next few years as new supply enters the market, unlocking new demand from price-sensitive buyers, while others said that project delays could tighten the market.
“This is a long horizon industry, you make investments for the long term and the bases for those investments are grounded in: where do we see, long-term, the demand going,” said Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods.
(Reporting by Emily Chow, Yousef Saba, and Andrew Mills in Doha; Writing by Marwa Rashad in London; Editing by Louise Heavens, Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Alexander Smith)