U.S. natural gas supply and demand will both rise to record highs in 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday. The EIA projected dry gas production will rise from a record 107.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027. The agency also projected domestic gas consumption will rise from a record 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. The August production projection for 2026 was unchanged from the EIA’s July forecast of 111.2 bcfd. The demand projection, however, was a little lower than the agency’s July forecast of 92.1 bcfd. The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas exports would rise from a record 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. The EIA also projected gas inventories would rise to a decade high of around four trillion cubic feet in October, the biggest buffer the country has had ahead of the peak winter heating season since 2016, due in part to rising output and lower consumption by LNG export facilities undergoing maintenance.
“More natural gas in inventories in the fall season provides a cushion for increased heating-related consumption during the winter,” EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said in a press release. With power generators expected to burn less coal in coming years, the EIA projected U.S. coal production would drop from a two-year high of 528.4 million short tons in 2025 to a two-year low of 514.4 million tons in 2026, and 496.6 million tons in 2027, which would be the lowest level since 1963. The agency projected carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would decline from a three-year high of 4.904 billion metric tons in 2025 to 4.818 billion metric tons in 2026 as oil, gas and coal use decreases, before edging up to 4.843 billion metric tons in 2027 as gas use increases.
(Reporting by Shariq Khan and Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Paul Simao)