Goldman Sachs and HSBC raised their oil price forecasts this week as prices climbed to multi-week highs on persistent Middle East shipping disruptions.
* Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price forecasts by $5 a barrel for December 2026 and 2027, citing an expectation that shipping disruptions in the Middle East will persist into next year.
* Goldman Sachs said in a note that Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel if average Gulf oil output in 2027 remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, compared with its base case assumption of a 0.5 million bpd shortfall.
* It also noted that Brent crude could fall into the $60s in 2027 under a downside price scenario in which average Gulf oil output rises 1 million barrels per day above pre-war levels.
* HSBC on Tuesday raised its 2026 and 2027 Brent price forecasts to $90 and $85 a barrel, respectively.
* “We think the market is adjusting to a disrupted ‘new normal’ in which the strait is neither fully closed nor fully open, but persistently impaired,” HSBC said in a note, referring to the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
* HSBC said it does not expect the market to return to balance until around mid-2027, implying further inventory drawdowns in coming quarters.
* Oil prices hit multi-week highs on Tuesday after Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities and Tehran threatened the United States with “economic warfare”.
* Brent crude futures earlier rose to $99.46, their highest since July 24, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude reached $94.73, its highest since June 8.
(Reporting by Katha Kalia and Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Stephen Coates and Mark Potter)