The global average crude freight rate remains seven times higher than a year ago and is unlikely to fall sharply while the Middle East conflict persists, posing some upside risk to Goldman Sachs’ Brent price forecast, the bank said in a note dated Tuesday.
* The global average crude freight rate surged above $20/bbl from $3/bbl a year ago, with rates on Middle Eastern routes rising above $35/bbl, the bank said
* Goldman said the war-risk premium for crossing the Strait of Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers account for more than half of the year-over-year increase in global crude freight rates
* Higher freight rates are expanding differentials between crude grades by altering trade patterns and lending support to prices for refined products, but weighing on refiners’ net margins, the bank said
* The bank said a rebound in Gulf crude exports may ease crude prices but push up freight rates if ship-to-ship transfers are driving the export increase
* Goldman said even in its baseline scenario of Brent falling to $90/bbl by year-end and averaging $80/bbl in 2027, Gulf production recovery and stable exports would still require ship-to-ship transfers in the absence of reliable navigation through the Strait of Hormuz
* The bank sees upside risk to its Brent forecast from prolonged elevated freight rates along with the potential for more intense attacks on shipping, damage to oil infrastructure and a stickier geopolitical risk premium
* A lack of progress in restoring Middle Eastern refined product exports suggests that bunker fuel supplies may remain tight for longer, it added
(Reporting by Sherin Sans and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Jochelle Mendonca)