HOUSTON, Jul. 9, 2015 /PRNewswire-iReach/ — The CountryWatch 2015 Energy Forecast, just released, is showing a surprising and politically significant trend for the energy industry. The forecast of supply, demand and price for the major fossil fuel energy commodities, released annually by CountryWatch, includes a summary of projected future carbon emissions from the consumption of petroleum, natural gas and coal. The global estimate is based on projections for each of the 194 countries covered in the forecast.
The projections of global carbon emissions from the 2015 forecast (which are shown in graphic form in Table 1) indicate that, based on CountryWatch’s current set of assumptions, carbon emissions have peaked globally this year, in 2015!
For the past two decades most energy forecasts, including those done by the US Department of Energy, have projected increasing trends in carbon emissions over long term forecast horizons. While projections of carbon emissions in developed economies have slowed recently, the global climate picture with respect to carbon emissions has been one of continued concern over ever-rising carbon emissions levels based on high economic growth rates, particularly in Asia.
However, as noted by Robert Kelly, Chairman of CountryWatch, “This year’s forecast reflects three important changes, which, taken together, may explain what we believe may be a turning point for our global carbon future.”
“First, the forecast has assumed a deceleration of global energy demand in the face of slowing growth in China. The Chinese economy, growing for the past several decades in excess of 10%, slowed in 2013 to just over 7% and we project will de-accelerate to lower rates converging on a real growth rate of 6% by the end of the forecast period in 2035. This slowdown in the pace of economic activity in the world’s second largest economy, along with slower rates of growth in Europe, coupled with continuing technical progress across the globe in reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP are creating a systemic turning point in the demand for fossil fuels.”
“Second, the development of hydraulic fracturing drilling technology has revolutionized the natural gas market in the United States resulting in lower overall costs to produce what is perceived as an environmentally superior fuel is now spreading globally. As a result, utilities, because of both price and regulation, are using more natural gas and less coal—a substitution that will continue to drive emissions lower.”
“Third, while such a system does not currently exist on a global basis, the governments of many political jurisdictions are moving to put a price, either through a carbon tax or through cap and trade systems, on carbon emissions. The CountryWatch forecast assumes that this will become a global reality for the period 2020 through 2035 in the forecast with the assumption of a $5 per ton carbon tax beginning in 2020 increasing to $30/ton by 2035.”
If the CountryWatch forecast proves to be indicative of actual future trends, the global economy is at a turning point in the climate change arena. Slowing economic growth in China, technological innovation brought about by entrepreneurs unlocking increasing supplies of clean-burning natural gas from shale formations, and the growing acceptance of the use of taxes to correct the market failures in pricing of carbon emissions are all key factors creating this shift to a lower global carbon footprint.
CountryWatch.com, is a Houston, Texas based online information company. The CountryWatch 2015 Energy Forecast can be purchased for $298 at http://forecast.countrywatch.com/
Media Contact: Robert Kelly, CountryWatch.com, Inc., 713-425-6552, firstname.lastname@example.org
News distributed by PR Newswire iReach: https://ireach.prnewswire.com
SOURCE CountryWatch.com, Inc