CALGARY, ALBERTA–(Marketwired – Dec. 14, 2015) – Rock Energy Inc. (TSX:RE) (“Rock” or the “Company”) is pleased to report a corporate reserves update effective November 30, 2015. This reserves update was undertaken by Rock’s independent reserve evaluator, GLJ Petroleum Consultants (“GLJ”). The report on such reserves (the “GLJ Report”) was prepared in accordance with definition, standards and procedures contained in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”). The information set forth below summarizes the oil, liquids and natural gas reserves and the net present value of future net revenues from those reserves using forecast prices and costs. Unless stated otherwise, all reserve volumes referred to in this document are “gross” reserves which are the Company’s interest share of reserves (operated and non-operated) before deduction of royalties and without including any royalty interests. The key results of the report can be summarized as follows:
- Increased its Total Proven plus Probable reserves by 38% from 12.5 million boe at 2014 year-end to 17.2 million boe (98% heavy and light oil and natural gas liquids). This increase in reserves was accomplished due to the success of the Laporte/Mantario Polymer Flood project as well as the continued success of the Onward Viking resource play development;
- Replaced 439% of its production during the period;
- Generated a corporate reserve value for the Total Proved plus Probable of $223.1 million (BTAX NPV discounted at 10%) despite the 33% reduction in the price forecast;
- Increased the Reserve Life Index (RLI) to 12.0 years on its Total Proven plus Probable reserves (assuming Q3/2015 average production of 3,933 boepd); and
- Focused the Company into three assets, two of which the Company has discovered and developed, representing 99% of the value of the Company.
Corporate Net Asset Value
Based on Rock’s updated reserve value, management estimates that the corporate net asset value of the Company is $3.70/share (basic) as detailed below:
Reserve Value (Total Proved plus Probable, BTAX NPV discounted at 10%) | $223.1 million |
Undeveloped Land (105,830 acres at approximately $150/acre (management estimate)) | $15.9 million |
Total assets | $239.0 million |
Less Debt (as of Sept 30, 2015) | $63.4 million |
Total Net Assets | $175.6 million |
Basic Shares outstanding (as of Sept 30, 2015) | 47.5 million |
Net Asset Value per basic share | $3.70 |
Reserves and Value by Property | |||||||||
Total Proved | Total Proved Plus Probable | ||||||||
Reserves (MBOE) | NPV (BTAX 10%) | Reserves (MBOE) | NPV (BTAX 10%) | ||||||
Laporte/Mantario | 5,647 | $80.5M | (61%) | 7,841 | $124.6M | (56%) | |||
Onward Light (Viking) | 4,115 | $37.6M | (28%) | 6,562 | $76.2M | (34%) | |||
Onward Heavy | 1,455 | $13.1M | (10%) | 2,370 | $20.7M | (9%) | |||
Other | 322 | $0.9M | (1%) | 472 | $1.6M | (1%) | |||
Total | 11,539 | $132.1M | 17,245 | $223.1M |
The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effect of aggregation.
Laporte/Mantario
The increase in corporate reserves was partially due to the success of the Laporte/Mantario Polymer Flood. This reserve increase comes from the increased pool size as a result of the successful step out drilling program and increased recovery factor attributable to the successful implementation of the enhanced oil recovery project.
Based on the performance to date of the polymer injection program and well response, GLJ has recognized an increased recovery factor (in the Proved plus Probable reserve category) from 20% at 2014 year-end to 25% at November 30, 2015. The Proved plus Probable reserves for the Polymer flood increased from 5.7 million boe to 7.8 million boe, and the value has increased from $116 million to $125 million (56% of total corporate value) from year-end 2014 to November 30, 2015. The increase in value was limited by the 33% reduction in the oil price forecast. Polymer injection has been ongoing since March 2015 and production has averaged 2,200-2,400 bopd for the past 9 months. Rock and GLJ are forecasting the oil production to remain flat at 2,200-2,400 bopd through 2016.
Onward Viking
Due to the ongoing success of the Onward Viking development, GLJ has been able to book a total of 169 Total Proved plus Probable undeveloped drilling locations of the over 600 previously unbooked locations management has identified. This compares to a total of 55 Proved plus Probable undeveloped locations at the end of 2014. Viking Proved plus Probable Reserves increased from 3.2 million boe to 6.6 million boe from December 31, 2014 to November 30, 2015, and the reserve value has increased from $58 million to $76 million (34% of total corporate value) over the same period.
Rock’s President and CEO Allen Bey commented “This updated engineering report completed by our third party independent engineers (GLJ) is another significant step in validating the success we are having at both our Laporte/Mantario and in our Onward Viking plays. The Company has been able to add a very significant amount of reserves during the first 11 months of 2015 with limited capital spending in a very difficult pricing environment. In addition, our rationalization efforts over the last two years have concentrated our assets into three key properties in Saskatchewan, representing 97% of our production and 99% of our value. While focusing our asset base, the Company has also been very successful in reducing our inactive well count to 31 net wells of a total of 220 net wells, generating a LLR (License Liability Rating) in Saskatchewan of over 13 (effective November 30, 2015). This illustrates a very low abandonment and reclamation obligation. We believe Rock is well positioned with a solid asset base to prosper through the coming years.”
RESERVES DATA
More detailed information in respect of reserves and net present value which is contained in the GLJ Report is set forth below.
Disclosure of Reserves Data
The reserves data set forth below (the “Reserves Data“) is based upon an evaluation by GLJ with an effective date of November 30, 2015 contained in the GLJ Report. The Reserves Data summarizes the oil, liquids and natural gas reserves of the Corporation and the net present values of future net revenue for these reserves using forecast prices and costs. The GLJ Report has been prepared in accordance with the standards contained in the COGE Handbook and the reserve definitions contained in NI 51-101. The Company engaged GLJ to provide an evaluation of proved and proved plus probable reserves and no attempt was made to evaluate possible reserves. All of Rock’s reserves are in Canada and, specifically, in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan.
We have adopted the standard of 6 Mcf:1boe when converting natural gas to boes. Boes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf per barrel is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different than the energy equivalency of the 6:1 conversion ratio, utilizing the 6:1 conversion ratio may be misleading as an indication of value.
All evaluations and reviews of future net cash flow are stated prior to any provision for interest costs or general and administrative costs and after the deduction of estimated future capital expenditures for wells to which reserves have been assigned. It should not be assumed that the estimated future net cash flow shown below is representative of the fair market value of the Corporation’s properties. There is no assurance that such price and cost assumptions will be attained and variances could be material. The recovery and reserve estimates of crude oil, natural gas liquids (“NGLs”) and natural gas reserves provided herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. Actual crude oil, NGLs and natural gas reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein.
Reserves Data (Forecast Prices and Costs)
SUMMARY OF WORKING INTEREST OIL AND GAS RESERVES | ||||||||||
AND NET PRESENT VALUES OF FUTURE NET REVENUE | ||||||||||
As of November 30, 2015 | ||||||||||
FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS | ||||||||||
RESERVES | ||||||||||
LIGHT AND MEDIUM CRUDE OIL | HEAVY CRUDE OIL | CONVENTIONAL NATURAL GAS | NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS | TOTAL | ||||||
RESERVES CATEGORY | Gross (Mbbl) |
Gross (Mbbl) |
Gross (MMcf) |
Gross (Mbbl) |
Gross (Mboe) |
|||||
PROVED | ||||||||||
Developed Producing | 807 | 5,675 | 943 | 20 | 6,659 | |||||
Developed Non-producing | 125 | 63 | 568 | 9 | 292 | |||||
Undeveloped | 3,224 | 1,364 | – | – | 4,588 | |||||
TOTAL PROVED | 4,157 | 7,102 | 1,512 | 29 | 11,539 | |||||
PROBABLE | 2,460 | 3,109 | 697 | 20 | 5,705 | |||||
TOTAL PROVED PLUS PROBABLE | 6,617 | 10,211 | 2,209 | 48 | 17,245 |
NET PRESENT VALUES OF FUTURE NET REVENUE | |||||||||||||||||||||||
BEFORE INCOME TAXES DISCOUNTED AT (%/year) | AFTER INCOME TAXES DISCOUNTED AT (%/year) | UNIT VALUE BEFORE INCOME TAX DISCOUNTED AT 10%/YEAR | |||||||||||||||||||||
RESERVES CATEGORY | 0 (M$) |
5 (M$) |
10 (M$) |
15 (M$) |
20 (M$) |
0 (M$) |
5 (M$) |
10 (M$) |
15 (M$) |
20 (M$) |
($/BOE) | ||||||||||||
PROVED | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Developed Producing | 147,349 | 122,429 | 104,521 | 91,241 | 81,108 | 147,349 | 122,429 | 104,521 | 91,241 | 81,108 | 16.31 | ||||||||||||
Developed Non-Producing | 3,521 | 2,683 | 1,999 | 1,477 | 1,082 | 3,521 | 2,683 | 1,999 | 1,477 | 1,082 | 7.50 | ||||||||||||
Undeveloped | 64,145 | 42,319 | 25,643 | 13,818 | 5,574 | 62,072 | 41,311 | 25,136 | 13,554 | 5,433 | 5.74 | ||||||||||||
TOTAL PROVED | 215,016 | 167,430 | 132,163 | 106,536 | 87,765 | 212,942 | 166,423 | 131,655 | 106,272 | 87,623 | 11.86 | ||||||||||||
PROBABLE | 212,836 | 135,252 | 90,893 | 64,188 | 47,207 | 154,771 | 100,906 | 69,394 | 50,099 | 37,621 | 17.38 | ||||||||||||
TOTAL PROVED PLUS PROBABLE | 427,852 | 302,683 | 223,056 | 170,723 | 134,972 | 367,714 | 267,329 | 201,050 | 156,370 | 125,244 | 13.62 |
TOTAL FUTURE NET REVENUE | ||||||||||||||||
(UNDISCOUNTED) | ||||||||||||||||
As of November 30, 2015 | ||||||||||||||||
FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS | ||||||||||||||||
RESERVES CATEGORY | REVENUE (M$) |
ROYALTIES (M$) |
OPERATING COSTS (M$) |
DEVELOPMENT COSTS (M$) |
WELL ABANDONMENT AND RECLAMATION COSTS (M$) |
FUTURE NET REVENUE BEFORE INCOME TAXES (M$) |
INCOME TAXES (M$) |
FUTURE NET REVENUE AFTER INCOME TAXES (M$) |
||||||||
Total Proved Reserves | 743,400 | 37,206 | 344,282 | 118,705 | 28,191 | 215,016 | 2,074 | 212,942 | ||||||||
Total Proved Plus Probable Reserves | 1,192,279 | 80,149 | 489,655 | 158,632 | 35,990 | 427,852 | 60,138 | 367,714 |
Notes to Reserves Data Tables:
- Columns may not add due to rounding.
- The crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas reserve estimates presented in the GLJ Report are based on the definitions and guidelines contained in the COGE Handbook.
- The revenue forecasts included in the GLJ Report include the estimated costs to abandon and reclaim the wells assigned reserves in the GLJ Report and to disconnect these wells from the gathering system. No costs have been included for the abandonment and reclamation of surface facilities or gathering systems. Also, no costs have been included in the GLJ Report for the abandonment and reclamation of any of Rock’s wells which have been assigned no reserves in the GLJ Report.
- The forecast price and cost assumptions assume the continuance of current laws and regulations.
- The extent and character of all factual data supplied to GLJ were accepted by GLJ as represented. No field inspection was conducted.
Future Development Costs
The following table sets forth development costs deducted in the estimation of the corporation’s future net revenue attributable to the reserve categories noted below.
Future Development Costs (Undiscounted) |
||||
Year | Total Proved Reserves ($000) |
Total Proved Plus Probable Reserves ($000) |
||
2016 | 8,455 | 25,489 | ||
2017 | 60,957 | 62,830 | ||
2018 | 49,293 | 54,095 | ||
2019 | – | 16,074 | ||
2020 | – | – | ||
Thereafter | – | 144 | ||
Total | 118,705 | 158,632 |
The Corporation expects to have sufficient internally generated cash flow and available credit facilities to finance the future development costs noted above.
Forecast Prices and Costs
The forecast cost and price assumptions assume increases in wellhead selling prices and take into account inflation with respect to future operating and capital costs. Crude oil and natural gas benchmark reference pricing, as at October 1, 2015, inflation and exchange rates utilized by GLJ in the GLJ Report, which were GLJ’s then current forecasts at the date of the GLJ Report, were as follows:
SUMMARY OF PRICING AND INFLATION RATE ASSUMPTIONS | ||||||||||||||||||||||
As of October 1, 2015 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS | ||||||||||||||||||||||
OIL | NATURAL GAS | NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS | ||||||||||||||||||||
Year | WTI Cushing Oklahoma ($US/Bbl) | Edmonton Par Price 40° API ($Cdn/Bbl) | Cromer Medium Crude 29° API ($Cdn/Bbl) |
Hardisty Heavy Crude 12° API ($Cdn/Bbl) |
AECO Gas Price ($Cdn/Mmbtu) | Edmonton Pentanes Plus ($Cdn/Bbl) |
Edmonton Propane ($Cdn/Bbl) |
Edmonton Butane ($Cdn/Bbl) |
Spec Ethane ($Cdn/Bbl) |
INFLATION RATES(1) %/Year | EXCHANGE RATE(2) ($Cdn/$US) | |||||||||||
Forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2015Q4 | 45.00 | 56.00 | 52.08 | 36.69 | 2.97 | 58.80 | 14.00 | 36.40 | 9.54 | 2.0 | 0.750 | |||||||||||
2016 | 50.00 | 61.33 | 57.04 | 42.30 | 3.43 | 65.63 | 15.33 | 39.87 | 11.12 | 2.0 | 0.750 | |||||||||||
2017 | 55.00 | 64.52 | 60.00 | 46.23 | 3.62 | 69.03 | 19.35 | 45.16 | 11.77 | 2.0 | 0.775 | |||||||||||
2018 | 60.00 | 68.75 | 63.94 | 50.22 | 3.72 | 73.56 | 24.06 | 51.56 | 12.12 | 2.0 | 0.800 | |||||||||||
2019 | 65.00 | 72.73 | 67.64 | 54.13 | 3.81 | 77.82 | 25.45 | 54.55 | 12.44 | 2.0 | 0.8250 | |||||||||||
2020 | 70.00 | 76.47 | 71.12 | 57.96 | 3.90 | 81.82 | 26.76 | 57.35 | 12.74 | 2.0 | 0.8500 | |||||||||||
2021 | 75.00 | 82.35 | 76.59 | 63.56 | 4.10 | 88.12 | 28.82 | 61.76 | 13.43 | 2.0 | 0.8500 | |||||||||||
2022 | 80.00 | 88.24 | 82.06 | 69.32 | 4.30 | 94.41 | 30.88 | 66.18 | 14.12 | 2.0 | 0.8500 | |||||||||||
2023 | 85.00 | 94.12 | 87.53 | 75.24 | 4.50 | 100.71 | 32.94 | 70.59 | 14.81 | 2.0 | 0.8500 | |||||||||||
2024 | 89.63 | 98.41 | 91.52 | 78.71 | 4.78 | 105.30 | 34.44 | 73.81 | 15.77 | 2.0 | 0.8500 | |||||||||||
Thereafter | +2%/year | +2%/year | +2%/year | +2%/year | +2%/year | +2%/year | +2%/year | +2%/year | +2%/year |
Notes:
- Inflation rates for forecasting prices and costs.
- Exchange rates used to generate the benchmark reference prices in this table.
For further information please visit Rock’s website at www.rockenergy.ca.