Financial and Operating Highlights
- Reported sales volumes for the third quarter of 2016 were higher at 21,632 Boe/d as compared to 20,299 Boe/d in the previous quarter;
- Natural gas pricing, after hedges, increased by 79 percent to $2.55/Mcf in the third quarter from $1.42/Mcf for the previous quarter;
- Total operating expenditures increased to $17.7 million ($8.90/Boe) in the third quarter from $15.4 million ($8.34/Boe) in the previous quarter on the higher production and on increased field workover and maintenance projects;
- Funds flow from operations(1) in the third quarter increased 66 percent to $16.1 million as compared to $9.7 million in the previous quarter, primarily on the increased production and on higher gas prices;
- Trilogy implemented significant capital cost efficiencies achieved mainly through improved drilling and completion practices and decreases in the cost of the related services. Trilogy drilled 6 wells (5.0 net) in the third quarter, for a total of 12 wells (10.5 net) to date in 2016. Net capital expenditures totaled $20.2 million for the quarter ($43.2 million year to date);
- Net debt(1) increased to $569.5 million at the end of the third quarter of 2016 from $561.6 million at the end of the prior quarter. Capacity under the credit facility at the end of the quarter was $25 million, inclusive of its working capital deficiency and outstanding letters of credit;
- Subsequent to the quarter:
- Trilogy and its credit facility lenders completed their mid-year borrowing base review whereby lender commitments remained unchanged at $300 million;
- a leak was discovered at one of the Company’s emulsion pipelines within its Kaybob Montney Oil Development. Environmental clean-up and remediation work has commenced; and
- executed certain 2017 oil and natural gas financial derivative contracts on the recent strength in commodity prices.
|(1)||Refer to Non-GAAP measures in this release and MD&A.|
Financial and Operating Highlights Table
(In thousand Canadian dollars except per share amounts and where stated otherwise)
|Three Months Ended||Nine Months Ended September 30|
|Change %||2016||2015||Change %|
|Petroleum and natural gas sales||48,550||39,125||24||133,202||229,432||(42||)|
|Per share – diluted||0.13||0.08||65||0.27||0.71||(62||)|
|Loss before tax||(25,460||)||(37,669||)||(32||)||(99,914||)||(159,358||)||(37||)|
|Per share – diluted||(0.20||)||(0.30||)||(33||)||(0.79||)||(1.26||)||(37||)|
|Loss after tax||(18,629||)||(29,112||)||(36||)||(75,285||)||(118,412||)||(36||)|
|Per share – diluted||(0.15||)||(0.23||)||(35||)||(0.60||)||(0.94||)||(37||)|
|Exploration, development, land, and facility||20,293||1,090||1,762||43,648||75,328||(42||)|
|Acquisitions (dispositions) and other – net||(80||)||(484||)||(83||)||(491||)||(48,690||)||(99||)|
|Net capital expenditures||20,213||606||3,235||43,157||26,638||62|
|Total shares outstanding (thousands)|
|– As at end of period(2)||126,066||126,064||–||126,066||126,123||–|
|Natural gas (MMcf/d)||92||84||10||91||111||(18||)|
|Natural gas liquids (Boe/d)||2,616||2,300||14||2,506||4,563||(45||)|
|Total production (Boe/d @ 6:1)||21,632||20,299||7||21,573||28,990||(26||)|
|Liquids Composition (percentage)||29||31||30||36|
|Average prices before financial instruments|
|Natural gas ($/Mcf)||2.47||1.42||74||2.23||3.23||(31||)|
|Crude Oil ($/Bbl)||52.03||51.04||2||46.58||54.38||(14||)|
|Natural gas liquids ($/Boe)||40.93||45.49||(10||)||39.69||35.27||13|
|Average realized price||24.39||21.18||15||22.53||28.99||(22||)|
|Drilling activity (gross)|
|(1)||Funds flow from operations and net debt are non-GAAP terms. Please refer to the advisory on Non-GAAP measures below.|
|(2)||Excluding shares held in trust for the benefit of Trilogy’s officers and employees under the Company’s Share Incentive Plan. Includes Common Shares and Non-voting Shares. Refer to the notes to the interim consolidated financial statements for additional information.|
Operations Update for the Third Quarter 2016
Trilogy’s 2016 third quarter production was 21,632 Boe/d, an increase of 7 percent from second quarter 2016 production of 20,299 Boe/d. The increase in third quarter production reflects the resumption of production from wells that were previously shut-in due to low commodity prices and the impact of new Montney oil and gas wells that were brought on production in the quarter. Trilogy drilled four horizontal Montney oil wells during the third quarter which are expected to be on production in the fourth quarter. Trilogy plans to drill up to 6 additional horizontal wells in the Kaybob Montney oil pool through the fourth quarter, with 3 of these wells expected to be on production before the end of the year and the remaining 3 wells expected to be completed and on production in early 2017. The Company is forecasting to average approximately 22,000 Boe/d for the year, given the current capital spending plans.
During the quarter, Trilogy’s net capital expenditures totaled $20.2 million while generating $16.1 million in funds flow from operations. To September 30, 2016, net capital expenditures totaled $43.2 million and funds flow from operations totaled $34.1 million. Given the current production forecast and strip pricing, Trilogy expects to generate approximately $60 million in annual funds flow from operations and is forecasting 2016 spending of approximately $70 million. The fourth quarter capital plan has one rig drilling the 6 new Montney oil wells mentioned above through the quarter, with 3 of these wells being completed before year-end. Trilogy has also moved forward with the completion of its Duvernay horizontal well at 12-21-63-17W5, which was drilled to manage expiring acreage that will now add to production volumes in 2017.
Also during the third quarter of 2016, Trilogy expanded on the success of the 2 horizontal Montney oil wells drilled in the first quarter of the year, being 100/05-06-064-18W5M (the “05-06 well”) and 102/12-06-064-18W5M (the “02/12-06 well”). Each of these wells were drilled, completed and tied-in for total costs of approximately $2.9 million compared to average historical costs of $4.1 million. These cost reductions were achieved mainly through improved drilling and completion practices and Trilogy believes a significant portion of these cost reductions to be sustainable going forward. The 02/12-06 well was completed with 10 tonnes of sand proppant in each of the 22 stages and has produced 58,400 barrels of oil in its initial 143 producing days. The 5-6 well was subsequently completed with 20 tonnes of sand in each of the 22 stages, and has produced 86,800 barrels of oil in its initial 133 producing days. Based on these production results, Trilogy finished the 4 Montney oil wells drilled in the third quarter with 20 tonnes per stage and is encouraged by the initial productivity of these wells. Trilogy completed drilling operations on its next 3 well Montney oil pad in late October and will be reducing packer spacing on these wells from 75 meters to 50 meters, resulting in 32 stages as compared to 22 stages in the previous wells. Trilogy plans to vary the proppant per stage from 15 tonnes of proppant per stage in the first well to 20 tonnes of proppant per stage in the next two wells when they are completed in November. Trilogy will continue to evaluate the performance of all of the wells, taking into account packer spacing and proppant loading variables, to determine the optimal completion program for future wells. Trilogy will provide additional production and completion information in its next operations update.
In the third quarter, Trilogy also completed the horizontal Duvernay well that it drilled in the first quarter of the year. The well was drilled from a surface location at 07-08-061-19W5M to a bottom hole location at 102/16-17-061-19W5M, with a 2,255 meter lateral for a drilling cost of approximately $4.7 million. The well was drilled and completed to prove productivity on a 6 section block of potentially expiring acreage. The single well completion cost approximately $5.5 million, and the well is expected to be on production during the first week of November. Trilogy is very encouraged by the significant reduction in drilling and completion costs in this Duvernay well given that, until recently, the Company’s cost of drilling and completing Duvernay wells averaged between $15 and $21 million, with lateral length and proppant volumes that were significantly less than are currently being used. It is expected that the longer lateral length and higher proppant loading will result in higher initial productivity and an increase in the ultimate recoverable reserves per well. Multi-well pad developments are expected to reduce costs by an additional 10 – 20 percent relative to the cost of drilling a single well location, resulting in improved economics for the commercial development of the Duvernay.
Additional Duvernay operations in the third quarter included the drilling of a Duvernay horizontal lateral from a well that was previously drilled to its intermediate casing point at 09- 30-063-17W5M in the first quarter of the year. By drilling the horizontal lateral, Trilogy was able to continue nine sections of expiring acreage around the well. The original well was drilled to intermediate casing point before operations were suspended due to break up. In August, the horizontal lateral was drilled to a bottom hole location at 12-21-063-17W5M with a lateral length of approximately 2,400 meters and an all-in drilling cost of $3.9 million. Trilogy elected to move forward with the fracture stimulation of the well in order to further analyze productivity of the eastern portion of the Company’s Duvernay land base and manages the expiring acreage. Trilogy believes the longer lateral and higher proppant loading will provide valuable information on the productivity of the block. The well is expected to be on production in January 2017.
Management believes the details announced in April 2016 for the Modernized Royalty Framework and subsequent details for the Emerging Resources Program has provided a renewed investment interest in the Duvernay and will support the continued development of its lands in the future. Collectively, the industry has continued to progress drilling and completion techniques to further reduce costs and increase ultimate recoverable reserves per well, resulting in improved economics for the commercial development of the Duvernay formation in the Kaybob area. Trilogy’s Duvernay land position and producing infrastructure provides it with a tremendous opportunity to profitably grow its production and the Company is evaluating options to accelerate the development of this asset.
Trilogy is extremely pleased with the operating cost reductions achieved over the past year and believes it remains profitable and competitive in the current commodity price environment. The Company has been able to reduce year-to- date operating costs to $8.47/Boe versus $9.18/Boe in calendar 2015. Trilogy forecasts annual operating costs to be approximately $8.50/Boe for 2016. General and administrative costs have been reduced throughout the Company as employees and contractors have all shared in reducing costs and controlling expenditures. Significant savings have also been achieved in our capital spending program by re-engineering previous processes and applying new technology to reduce drilling days and completion costs. These reduced costs are expected to provide improved economics in our key plays.
On October 6, Trilogy identified a release from an oil emulsion pipeline servicing a portion of its Kaybob Montney oil pool. Trilogy immediately diverted production and isolated and purged the pipeline, thereby containing the source of the leak. Trilogy crews and response teams have been on site since the release was discovered, working diligently to fully recover and remediate the affected area, which is currently estimated to be approximately 3 hectares of land. Trilogy continues to investigate the cause of the leak and confirm the volume of the release. Although it is early in the investigation, Trilogy’s preliminary estimate, based on visual observations and the work that has been done to date to delineate the release, including the results of the electromagnetic surveys that were conducted, is that approximately 250 m3 (1,600 barrels) of emulsion (50% oil, 50% water) was released. Trilogy has and will continue to work cooperatively with the Alberta Energy Regulator to fully remediate the affected area and mitigate further environmental impact. Updates will be provided on the company website at www.trilogyenergy.com/kaybob-emulsion-release.html.
In the current natural gas and crude oil commodity price environment, Trilogy expects to manage its business through continued production of profitable wells, asset rationalization and disciplined capital spending. As a growth -oriented corporation, Trilogy must remain flexible in order to respond to changes in commodity prices and royalty structures and believes it can manage its asset base prudently.
Trilogy is encouraged by the capital and operating efficiencies it has been able to achieve over the past two years. Management believes the Company has weathered the worst part of the commodity price cycle and is positioned to profitably grow based on its current assets and cost structure.
Annual guidance for 2016 is updated as follows:
|Average production||22,000 Boe/d|
|Average operating costs||$8.50/Boe|
|Capital expenditures||$70 million|
|Funds flow from operations||$60 million|
Trilogy intends to continue to allocate capital in-line with its annual funds flow from operations and manage its resources to provide the best returns for its shareholders. The Company will continue to monitor commodity prices and may hedge a portion of its production related to the Montney oil and gas wells to be drilled through 2017 to capture the attractive economics that these plays can provide.
Trilogy’s financial and operating results for the third quarter of 2016, including Management’s Discussion and Analysis and the Company’s unaudited Interim Consolidated Financial Statements and related notes as at and for the quarter ended September 30, 2016 can be obtained at http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/tet1107q3report.pdf. These reports will also be made available through Trilogy’s website at www.trilogyenergy.com and SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
Trilogy is a petroleum and natural gas-focused Canadian energy corporation that actively develops, produces and sells natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. Trilogy’s geographically concentrated assets are primarily, high working interest properties that provide abundant low-risk infill drilling opportunities and good access to infrastructure and processing facilities, many of which are operated and controlled by Trilogy. Trilogy’s common shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “TET”.
Certain measures used in this document, including “adjusted EBITDA”, “consolidated debt”, “finding and development costs”, “funds flow from operations”, “operating income”, “net debt”, “operating netback”, “payout ratio”, “recycle ratio” and “senior debt” collectively the “Non-GAAP measures” do not have any standardized meaning as prescribed by IFRS and previous GAAP and, therefore, are considered Non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP measures are commonly used in the oil and gas industry and by Trilogy to provide Shareholders and potential investors with additional information regarding the Company’s liquidity and its ability to generate funds to finance its operations. However, given their lack of standardized meaning, such measurements are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers.
“Adjusted EBITDA” refers to “Funds flow from operations” plus cash interest, tax expenses, certain other items (accrued cash remuneration costs for its employees – deducted from EBITDA when paid) that do not appear individually in the line items of the Company’s financial statements in addition to pro-forma adjustments for properties acquired or disposed of in the period.
“Consolidated debt” generally includes all long-term debt plus any issued and undrawn letters of credit, less any cash held.
“Finding and development costs” refers to all capital expenditures and costs of acquisitions, excluding expenditures where the related assets were disposed of by the end of the year, and including changes in future development capital on a proved or proved plus probable basis. “Finding and development costs per Barrel of oil equivalent” (“F&D $/Boe”) is calculated by dividing finding and development costs by the current year’s reserve extensions, discoveries and revisions on a proved or proved plus probable reserve basis. Management uses finding and development costs as a measure to assess the performance of the Company’s resources required to locate and extract new hydrocarbon reservoirs.
“Funds flow from operations” refers to the cash flow from operating activities before net changes in operating working capital as shown in the consolidated statements of cash flows. Management utilizes funds flow from operations as a key measure to assess the ability of the Company to finance dividends, operating activities, capital expenditures and debt repayments.
“Operating income” is equal to petroleum and natural gas sales before financial instruments and bad debt expenses minus royalties, operating charges, and transportation costs. Management uses this metric to measure the discrete operating results of its oil and gas properties.
“Operating netback” refers to operating income plus realized financial instrument gains and losses and other income minus actual decommissioning and restoration costs incurred. Operating netback provides management with a more fulsome metric on its oil and gas properties considering strategic decisions (for example, hedging program) and associated full life cycle charges.
“Net debt” is calculated as current liabilities minus current assets plus long-term debt. Management utilizes net debt as a key measure to assess the liquidity of the Company.
“Payout ratio” refers to dividends divided by cash flow from operations. This measure assists in providing a more complete understanding of the Company’s ability to fund future dividends to Shareholders from cash flow from operations.
“Recycle ratio” is equal to “Operating netback” on a production barrel of oil equivalent for the year divided by “F&D $/Boe” (computed on a proved or proved plus probable reserve basis as applicable). Management uses this metric to measure the profitability of the Company in turning a barrel of reserves into a barrel of production.
“Senior debt” is generally defined as “Consolidated debt” but excluding any indebtedness under the Senior Unsecured Notes. Investors are cautioned that the Non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or construed as alternatives to their most directly comparable measure calculated in accordance with IFRS, as set forth above, or other measures of financial performance calculated in accordance with IFRS.
Certain information included in this news release constitutes forward-looking statements under applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking statements or information typically contain statements with words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “plan”, “intend”, “estimate”, “propose”, “budget”, “goal”, “objective”, “possible”, “probable”, “projected”, scheduled”, or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, should”, “would,” “might”, or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved, or similar words suggesting future outcomes or statements regarding an outlook. Forward-looking statements or information in this news release include, but are not limited to, statements regarding: forecast commodity prices; the Company’s forecast 2016 annual production levels, funds flow from operations, capital expenditures, spending levels and operating costs; the Company’s drilling, completion and development plans in the Kaybob Montney oil and gas pools and the Duvernay shale play, including the estimated costs of drilling, completing, equipping and tying in the wells in these plays, the timing thereof and the expectant production resulting therefrom; the quality, tenure, and profitability of Trilogy’s land base and its ability to provide Trilogy with the opportunity to grow production and create long-term shareholder value; Trilogy’s commitment to maintaining financial sustainability during the current depressed commodity price environment by, without limitation, rationalizing assets, reducing costs, controlling capital spending and operating within expected annual funds flow from operations along with management’s belief as to the impact of such measures on Trilogy’s operations and financial position; management’s intention to leverage off of drilling, completion and other cost reductions previously achieved by the Company and statements as to the sustainability of such cost reductions; Trilogy’s expectations as to the size, term and provisions (including covenants therein) of its bank credit facility and the cost of borrowing; the anticipated impact of government royalty regimes and incentive programs affecting Trilogy including, without limitation, the Modernized Royalty Framework and the Emerging Resources Program; Trilogy’s intention to evaluate options to accelerate the development of the Duvernay shale play; and other statements regarding Trilogy’s profitability, Management’s current estimates of the impact of the recent Kaybob North Montney pipeline release including, without limitation, the size of the affected area and the volumes released; the opportunities within Trilogy’s asset base and the Company’s business strategy and objectives for 2016 and beyond.
Such forward-looking statements or information are based on a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. Such assumptions include: current commodity price forecasts for petroleum, natural gas and natural gas liquids (including condensate); cash flow consistent with expectations; current reserves estimates; credit facility availability and access to sources of funding for Trilogy’s planned operations and expenditures; current production forecasts and the relative mix of crude oil, NGLs and natural gas therein; geology applicable to Trilogy’s land holdings; the development potential and profitability of Trilogy’s assets; assumptions regarding royalties and expenses and the applicability and continuity of royalty regimes and government incentive programs; operating and other costs; currency exchange and interest rates; expected timelines and budgets being met in respect of drilling programs and other operations; budget allocations and capital spending flexibility; ability of Trilogy to service and repay its debt when due; estimates of deferred tax amounts, tax assets and tax pools; estimates and projections in respect of the application of tax laws; the ability of Trilogy and its partners to achieve drilling, completion, construction and other operational results consistent with our expectations (including in respect of anticipated production volumes, reserves additions and NGL yields); general business, economic, and market conditions; the ability of Trilogy to obtain equipment, services and supplies in a timely manner to carry out its activities; the ability of Trilogy to market its crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids successfully to current and new customers; expectations that counterparties will fulfill their obligations under operating, gathering, processing, midstream and marketing agreements; the timing and costs of pipeline, storage and facility construction and expansion and facility run-times; the ability to secure adequate product processing, transmission, transportation, fractionation and storage capacity on acceptable terms; the timely receipt of required regulatory approvals; and assumptions used in calculating the impact of the recent Kaybob North Montney pipeline release; among others.
Although Trilogy believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements or information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements because Trilogy can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Forward-looking statements or information are based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by Trilogy and described in the forward-looking statements or information. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: fluctuations in oil, natural gas, condensate and other natural gas liquids and commodity prices; Trilogy’s ability to generate sufficient cash flow from operations and other sources of financing at an acceptable cost to fund Trilogy’s exploration, development and construction plans and meet current and future obligations; foreign currency, exchange rates and interest rates; uncertainties as to the availability and cost of financing; Trilogy’s ability to satisfy the maintenance covenants within its credit and debt arrangements; the risk and effect of a downgrade in Trilogy’s credit rating; volatile economic and business conditions; the ability of management to execute its business plan; the risks of the oil and gas industry, such as operational risks in exploring for, developing and producing crude oil, natural gas, condensate and other natural gas liquids and market demand; the ability of Trilogy to add production and reserves through development and exploration activities and acquisitions; risks and uncertainties involving geology of oil and gas deposits; risks inherent in Trilogy’s marketing operations, including credit risk and the risk that Trilogy may not be able to enter into suitable arrangements for the sale of its sales volumes;
the uncertainty of reserves estimates and reserves life; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to future production and NGL yields, as well as costs and expenses; uncertainty with regard to royalty payments and the applicability of and changes to royalty regimes and government incentive programs; potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; Trilogy’s ability to secure adequate product transmission, transportation, fractionation and storage capacity on acceptable terms and on a timely basis or at all; potential disruptions or unexpected technical difficulties in designing, developing or operating new, expanded or existing pipelines or facilities (including third party operated pipelines and facilities); risks related to the actions and financial circumstances of Trilogy’s agents, contractors, counterparties, and joint venture partners; the possibility Trilogy will not commence or complete a process to evaluate opportunities with respect to its Duvernay shale assets in the near future or at all; Trilogy’s ability to enter into or renew leases; health, safety and environmental risks; weather conditions; the possibility that government policies, regulations or laws, including without limitation those relating to the environment and taxation, may change; risks and costs associated with environmental, regulatory, and compliance, including those potentially associated with hydraulic fracturing, greenhouse gasses and “climate change” and the cost to Trilogy of complying with same; imprecision in estimates of product sales, commodity prices, capital expenditures, tax pools and tax deductions available to Trilogy; changes to and the interpretation of tax legislation and regulations applicable to Trilogy; the possibility that regulatory approvals may be delayed or withheld; risks associated with existing and potential future lawsuits and regulatory actions against Trilogy; uncertainty regarding aboriginal land claims and co-existing local populations; the impact of market competition; the risks that the assumptions used by Management to estimate the impacts and costs resulting from the recent Kaybob North Montney pipeline release prove to be inaccurate; and other risks and uncertainties described elsewhere in this document or in Trilogy’s other filings with Canadian securities authorities.
The forward-looking statements and information contained in this news release are made as of the date hereof and Trilogy undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws.
Refer to Trilogy’s Management’s Discussion and Analysis for additional information on forward-looking information.
Oil and Gas Advisory
This document contains disclosure expressed as “Boe”, “MBoe”, “Boe/d”, “Mcf”, “Mcf/d”, “MMcf”, “MMcf/d”, “Bcf”, “Bbl”, and “Bbl/d”. All oil and natural gas equivalency volumes have been derived using the ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil (6:1). Equivalency measures may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the well head. For Q3 2016, the ratio between Trilogy’s average realized oil price and the average realized natural gas price was approximately 21:1 (“Value Ratio”). The Value Ratio is obtained using the Q3 2016 average realized oil price of $52.03 (CAD$/Bbl) and the Q3 2016 average realized natural gas price of $2.47 (CAD$/mcf). This Value Ratio is significantly different from the energy equivalency ratio of 6:1 and using a 6:1 ratio would be misleading as an indication of value.
J.H.T. (Jim) Riddell, Chief Executive Officer
J.B. (John) Williams, President and Chief Operating Officer
M.G. (Michael) Kohut, Chief Financial Officer
Trilogy Energy Corp.
1400 – 332 – 6th Avenue S.W.
Calgary, Alberta T2P 0B2
(403) 263-8915 (FAX)