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Notley’s downplay of Keystone’s importance demonstrates severe lack of oil market knowledge

November 11, 2016 4:02 PM
Josh Groberman

Talking points are easy and many politicians are quite good at rambling them off. Premier Notley has been especially on queue with her misinformed talking point that Keystone XL is not important to Alberta’s oil industry.

Premier Notley has taken an incredibly troubling stance on the proposed Keystone XL pipeline. Her assertions clearly demonstrate that she is under-informed and blinded by ideology on this critical pipeline issue. Here are a few of the points she mentioned:

When she first sat in the legislature in May 2015 after being elected Premier, Notley unbelievably spouted:

First of all, our position on the Keystone (pipeline) was that if we ship unprocessed bitumen to Texas, according to this government and to the American government, we will give tens of thousands of Alberta jobs to Texas — not to Albertans — and that’s not what Albertans want to see.

This is a direct quote from the Premier of one of the most important oil producing jurisdictions in the world. Her assertion is also completely made-up. The American government never said it would steal jobs from Albertans and send them to Texas. And if her government’s position is that Keystone will ship jobs out of Alberta, it is solely based on fallacious logic twisted by radical ideology.

Keystone XL would accomplish 3 key things: it would ease the glut of Alberta oil, offer safer and more cost-effective transportation, and help reduce crippling differentials which cost Canadian oil producers as much as $15 per barrel (bbl). As much as $45 million per day!

This past week Premier Notley said the following: “[The United States] is our number one competitor” and that Alberta “needs more than just one customer”. She said she’s more concerned about moving Alberta oil to tidewater than South of the border.

Again, why diminish the importance of Keystone XL? It makes no sense. It’s viable and would move up to 830,000 bbl per day (bbl/d) of Canada’s oil production, plus accomplish everything mentioned above.

Premier Notley also clearly demonstrates she has no knowledge of North America’s current situation of oil supply and demand. There is tremendous room for growth within Canada-US territory for domestic supply. Currently, the United States produces 8.4 million bbl/d of oil. It consumes 19.4 million bbl/d. Canada produces 3.4 million bbl/d and consumes about 1.9 million bbl/d.

After meeting our own needs, Canada is supplying 1.5 million net bbl/d of the 11 million bbl/d oil that the US needs. A mere 14%. Canada should strive to supply 100%–an additional 9.5 million bbl/day–of US net demand. Is Premier Notley unaware of this?

Our closest ally (literally and figuratively) needs more than 6 times our net supply. If Keystone XL and new lines are built we could supply substantially more oil than current volumes and far more economically than if we were to supply those amounts to the rest of the world. We can also gain a tremendous advantage over foreign producers who are only competitive right now because of our limited supply lines.

The United States needs way more Canadian oil for the foreseeable future and they are now finally going to be willing to move forward with pipelines. Either Premier Notley is on board or she is actively working against the interest of all Albertans.

Update

Just to clarify, I am for building every major proposed pipeline. This article is not to suggest building Keystone as opposed to other pipelines, but to point out that Keystone is far too important to play down.

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