Pipeline move a risk for Canada’s Trudeau, but inaction worse

Canada's decision on Tuesday tobuy a troubled oil pipeline is a big risk that could cost PrimeMinister Justin Trudeau important voter support in a majorprovince, but insiders say failure to act decisively to boostenergy exports might hurt his chances to win re-election in2019.

Trudeau's Liberal government said it will buy Kinder MorganCanada Ltd's Trans Mountain pipeline for C$4.5 billion($3.5 billion) in hopes of saving a project that faces majorpolitical and environmental opposition.

"I think this could end up being the biggest gamble of hismandate," said pollster Nik Nanos, noting Trudeau came to powerin late 2015 promising to do more for the environment.

"This is a very risky political move in terms of the primeminister's personal brand and the brand of the Liberal party,but weighed against the needs of the economy, the Liberalsprobably see this as a necessary move."

Liberal insiders hope the move will help dispel criticismthat Trudeau dithers on big issues, ditching some campaignpromises and consulting endlessly on others with little actualachievement after three years in office.

Party operatives dispute that Trudeau has frittered away histime in power but they concede the accusations of inaction aretaking a toll.

The main opposition Conservative party is becoming morecompetitive in polls, and even took the lead in one NanosResearch survey released on Tuesday, which showed Conservativesat 36 percent public support and the Liberals at 33 percent.

"It is better in this case to take action – even if it turnsout to be the wrong choice – than do nothing," said awell-placed Liberal source, who requested anonymity because ofthe sensitivity of the situation.

Trans Mountain runs from the Alberta oil sands to thePacific province of British Columbia, and a planned expansion isa centerpiece of Trudeau's energy policy and key to helping meetcarbon emission agreements.

Opposition is fierce in British Columbia, where the Liberalswon an unexpectedly large number of seats in 2015, yet Trudeausays the expansion must go ahead so exporters can ship oil toglobal markets.

Senior Liberals play down the chances of a politicalmassacre in the 2019 election, noting recent polls show a slimmajority of people in British Columbia back the pipeline.

The pipeline's biggest supporters are in western provinceslike Alberta where Liberals traditionally do poorly.

The government has "staked so much on this that if theydon't come out with a deal of some sort, that will be highlyproblematic for them politically," said Monica Gattinger,director of the Institute for Science, Society and Policy at theUniversity of Ottawa.

The Liberals, who promise to balance the needs of thenatural resources industry with the environment, blocked oneproposed pipeline to the Pacific coast in 2016. The proponentsbehind a similar line to the Atlantic pulled out in 2017 afterthe national energy regulator imposed more conditions.

(Additional reporting by Leah Schnurr in Ottawa; Editing byDavid Gregorio)