• Sign up for the Daily Digest E-mail
  • Facebook
  • X
  • LinkedIn

BOE Report

Sign up
  • Home
  • StackDX Intel
  • Headlines
    • Latest Headlines
    • Featured Companies
    • Columns
    • Discussions
  • Well Activity
    • Well Licences
    • Well Activity Map
  • Property Listings
  • Land Sales
  • M&A Activity
    • M&A Database
    • AER Transfers
  • Markets
  • Rig Counts/Data
    • CAOEC Rig Count
    • Baker Hughes Rig Count
    • USA Rig Count
    • Data
      • Canada Oil Market Data
      • Canada NG Market Data
      • USA Market Data
      • Data Downloads
  • Jobs

Oil to hit $40 by 2030 if climate goals are met according to report

April 15, 20217:52 AM Reuters0 Comments

Global oil prices could drop to around $40 a barrel by 2030 if governments push to reduce fuel consumption in step with U.N.-backed plans to limit global warming, a leading energy consultancy said on Thursday.

In a report outlining a scenario where the world acts decisively to tackle greenhouse gas emissions by electrifying transport and industry, Edinburgh-based Wood Mackenzie said oil consumption would begin a steep drop as early as in 2023.

The decline in demand would accelerate to a rate of 2 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) to reach 35 million bpd by 2050, accounting for a 60% drop in carbon emissions from oil use from today’s levels.

Oil consumption hit a record of around 100 million bpd in 2019 and is expected to recover strongly this year after cratering last year due to the coronavirus epidemic.

As a result, oil prices would begin to slip later this decade, WoodMac said in its report. Under its Accelerated Energy Transition scenario, it expects Brent crude prices to average $40 per barrel by 2030, compared with current prices of around $65 a barrel.

By 2050, Brent may slide to $10 to $18 a barrel.

“If we move to keep global warming to the 2 degrees Celsius limit set by the (U.N.-backed) Paris Agreement, the energy matrix will change – and change profoundly,” said WoodMac’s Ann-Louise Hittle.

The world’s current policies are nevertheless far from aligned with the Paris agreement, with temperatures currently on course to rise by 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels by 2100, WoodMac stressed.

A rapid decline in demand also means that existing sources of oil supplies would be sufficient to meet all future demand, with only limited need for new oifield developments, WoodMac said.

A sharp fall in oil demand and prices in the coming decades would have a profound impact on major oil producers such as members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, WoodMac said.

“The steep fall in demand prevents those key oil producers from managing the market and supporting prices in the way it does today. Despite losing their price-setting ability, however, low-cost Middle East OPEC producers remain core providers of oil.”

Natural gas, the least polluting fossil fuel, would, however, fare better than oil by replacing coal for power generation, particularly in fast-growing Asian economies, the report added.

As oil prices declined, gas would eventually trade at a premium to oil under WoodMac’s scenario. Benchmark U.S. Henry Hub prices are forecast to trade at $3 to $4 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) under WoodMac’s scenario.

Gas demand in Asia would increase on average by 1.5% a year through to 2050, offsetting declines in more mature markets, which would be switching to renewables from gas.

Follow BOE Report
  • Facebook
  • X
  • LinkedIn

Sign up for the BOE Report Daily Digest E-mail

Successfully subscribed

Latest Headlines
  • Discount on Western Canada Select widens
  • European Commission proposes Russian oil price cap 15% below global price
  • US oil/gas rig count down for 11th week to lowest since 2021, Baker Hughes says
  • Taiwan’s CPC Corp eyes US shale gas assets, sources say
  • Saudi Arabia complying fully with voluntary OPEC+ target, energy ministry says

Return to Home
Alberta GasMonthly Avg.
CAD/GJ
Market Data by TradingView

    Report Error







    Note: The page you are currently on will be sent with your report. If this report is about a different page, please specify.

    About
    • About BOEReport.com
    • In the News
    • Terms of Use
    • Privacy Policy
    • Editorial Policy
    Resources
    • Widgets
    • Notifications
    • Daily Digest E-mail
    Get In Touch
    • Advertise
    • Post a Job
    • Contact
    • Report Error
    BOE Network
    © 2025 Stack Technologies Ltd.