Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s tenure is off to a turbulent start in Canada’s main oil-producing province after she was forced to apologize for controversial comments in her first two weeks, and polls show her United Conservative Party (UCP) sliding against the opposition ahead of 2023 elections.
Smith was sworn in as premier on Oct. 11 after party infighting forced her predecessor to resign.
Within days, she was engulfed in controversy over April social media comments calling for Ukrainian neutrality and saying unvaccinated were people “the most discriminated-against group that I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime” during her first media appearance as premier.
A Navigator Ltd poll published on Wednesday showed only 38% of decided voters intend to vote for the UCP in the provincial election next May, versus 53% for the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP). A Leger poll last week had put the UCP and NDP at roughly equal support among decided voters, with 42% and 44% respectively.
“This is really not a good start. We don’t even have a cabinet in place yet, and we have a premier who has twice had to stop and issue some sort of clarification or apology,” said Tom McIntosh, a professor of politics at the University of Regina.
Smith, a former journalist and talk radio host, won the UCP leadership race in early October. She plans to appoint her cabinet later this month.
She campaigned on a right-wing populist platform appealing to grassroots conservatives, promising to stand up for Alberta against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government in Ottawa and to push back against COVID-19 vaccine mandates and other pandemic restrictions.
Smith last week released a statement clarifying her comments on unvaccinated people, saying she did not intend to trivialize the discrimination faced by minority communities.
On Tuesday, she apologized after April social media comments emerged in which she suggested Ukraine being neutral was the “only answer” to its invasion by Russia.
Nearly 8% of Albertans have Ukrainian heritage, according to the provincial government.
NDP leader Rachel Notley said on Twitter Smith’s comments on Ukraine had damaged Alberta’s international standing as a stable, secure energy provider, which in the long-term would mean less investment and fewer jobs in the province.
“An apology is one thing. Now, we need a plan to fix it,” Notley said.
The Navigator poll was conducted before Smith’s Ukraine comments came to light. Managing principal Jason Hatcher said Albertans were concerned by internal UCP divisions and Smith’s proposed Alberta Sovereignty Act that would challenge federal laws.
The western province is traditionally a conservative stronghold and the UCP still has firm support in rural Alberta, meaning the election result is far from decided despite the NDP’s strong poll showing, he added.
“Voter intention is not the same as seat projections,” Hatcher said. “We see a road to victory for both parties.” (Reporting by Nia Williams; Editing by Josie Kao)