J.P. Morgan cuts its forecast for global benchmark oil price Brent for 2023 to $90 per barrel on average from $98; estimates 2024 average of $98
Brokerage expects Russian production will normalize to pre-war levels by mid-2023
“Our forecast of $90 Brent in 2023 rests on the view that OPEC+ alliance will do the heavy lifting to keep markets balanced next year,” says JPM
Adds that OPEC+ would need to cut output to balance out supply growth from places such as Brazil, Norway, Guyana, U.S., Canada and Argentina next year
Brokerage expects output growth from U.S. shale producers, “traditionally the most responsive to changing market conditions”, to more than halve to 0.5 million barrels a day (mbd) in 2024 from 1.1-1.2 mbd in 2022.