Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next but still expects prices to rise gradually to $100 a barrel by December.
Goldman lowered it Brent 2023 price forecast to $92 per barrel (bbl) from $98/bbl and its 2024 price forecast to $100/bbl from $105/bbl.
“This adjustment reflects a modest softening to our 2023 balance,” it added.
“On the demand side, downgrades in Europe, the United States, and Asia excluding China — reflecting a warm winter and the loss of distillate-based gas-to-oil switching — offset much of the China upgrade,” the bank said in a note.
Goldman also raised its global supply forecasts for 2023 and 2024, with Russia, Kazakhstan and the United States the most notable upward adjustments.
The bank noted that a 1.1 million barrel-per-day rise in Chinese demand this year should push oil markets back into deficit in June.
“While we still expect long-dated prices to rise to nearly $80/bbl by end-2024, the rise in spare capacity from the ongoing surplus and the lower starting point for long-dated prices imply the adjustment will take longer,” Goldman added.
Oil prices edged lower on Friday but were set for a weekly gain with the market continuing to seesaw between fears of a recession hitting the United States and hopes for strong fuel demand recovery in China.