World’s top exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to extend its additional voluntary supply cuts to at least the first quarter, if not the first half of 2024, Amrita Sen, co-founder of consultancy Energy Aspects said on Wednesday.
Current oil prices are not low enough to push the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, to deepen supply cuts in 2024, she said at the FT Asia Commodities Summit.
The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting will be held on Nov. 26 to discuss market outlook.
Brent prices are holding at just above $82 a barrel, depressed by concerns about economic growth and demand, despite support from supply cuts by OPEC and its allies and conflict in the Middle East.
Washington has lifted sanctions on Venezuela, which is expected to improve heavy oil supplies to the U.S. and Europe at the expense of China, while oil from Russia and Iran continued to be exported despite sanctions.
“The problem still remains the underlying dichotomy with U.S. policies,” Sen said.
“They do want to reduce revenues for Russia without disrupting flows.”
The U.S. Treasury Department sent notices on Friday to ship management companies requesting information about 100 vessels it suspects of violating Western sanctions on Russian oil, Reuters reported on Monday.
The move represents the biggest step of its kind by the United States since Washington and its allies imposed a price cap aimed at restricting oil revenues to Moscow as punishment for its invasion of Ukraine.
For Iran, production has gone up by about 600,000 barrels per day, said Energy Aspects’ Sen. The OPEC producer is exporting record volumes of oil to China.
(Reporting by Muyu Xu and Trixie Yap; Writing by Florence Tan;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)