U.S. natural gas production and demand will rise to record highs in 2023 and 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 103.67 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 104.91 bcfd in 2024 from a record 99.60 bcfd in 2022.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would rise to 89.46 bcfd in 2023 and 89.62 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.46 bcfd in 2022.
If the projection is correct, 2024 would be the first time output rises for four years in a row since 2015 and demand rises for four years in a row since 2016.
The latest projections for 2023 were lower than the EIA’s November forecast of 103.68 bcfd for supply, but higher than its November forecast of 89.42 bcfd for demand.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 11.81 bcfd in 2023 and 12.36 bcfd in 2024, up from a record 10.59 bcfd in 2022.
That is higher than EIA’s 2023 LNG export forecast in November of 11.80 bcfd.
The agency projected U.S. coal production would fall from 594.2 million short tons in 2022 to 587.8 million short tons in 2023, the lowest since 2021, and 486.3 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1963, as gas and renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants.
As power producers burn less coal, the EIA projected carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would fall from 4.941 billion metric tons in 2022 to 4.805 billion metric tons in 2023 and 4.754 billion metric tons in 2024.
That compares with 4.580 billion metric tons in 2020, which was the lowest since 1983, as the coronavirus pandemic sapped demand for energy.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)