U.S. crude production will rise to record highs in 2024 and 2025, but will grow less than it did last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday.
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA projected U.S. crude production will rise by 290,000 million barrels per day (bpd) to 13.21 million bpd this year and reach 13.44 million bpd in 2025, as well efficiency offsets fewer active drilling rigs.
The previous record – 12.31 million bpd – was notched in 2019 before COVID-19 triggered a cut in production.
The growth in production in 2024 and 2025 is also forecast to be much smaller than the rise of 1.01 million bpd last year.
The EIA outlook was released as investors raise concerns about rising global supply. A Reuters survey on Friday found that oil output by the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose in December as increases in Angola, Iraq and Nigeria offset continuing cuts by Saudi Arabia and others in the wider OPEC+ alliance.
Saudi Arabia also cut the February official selling price (OSP) of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia to the lowest level in 27 months, in a sign of rising supply and weaker demand for its lighter crudes.
OPEC production will fall by 230,000 bpd to 31.96 million bpd in 2024 before edging up to 32.63 million bpd in 2025, EIA forecast.
Meanwhile, the agency raised its 2024 world oil demand growth forecast by 50,000 bpd from its previous estimate.
U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption would rise by 200,000 bpd to 20.4 million bpd in 2024, it added.
(Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar and Georgina McCartney in Houston; Editing by David Gregorio and Paul Simao)