U.S. natural gas production and demand will rise to record highs in 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
The EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 104.37 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024 and 106.46 bcfd in 2025 from a record 103.75 bcfd in 2023.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 88.96 bcfd in 2023 to 90.64 bcfd in 2024 before easing to 89.55 bcfd in 2025.
If the projections are correct, 2024 would be the first time output rises for four years in a row since 2015, and the first time demand increases for four years in a row since 2016.
The latest projections for 2024 were lower than EIA’s January forecast of 105.04 bcfd for supply, but higher than its January forecast of 89.89 bcfd for demand.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 12.09 bcfd in 2024 and 14.43 bcfd in 2025, up from a record 11.83 bcfd in 2023.
That is lower than EIA’s 2024 LNG export forecast in January of 12.36 bcfd.
The agency projected U.S. coal production would fall from 581.6 million short tons in 2023 to 469.6 million short tons in 2024 and 455.6 million short tons in 2025, both the lowest since 1962, as gas and renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants.
With the country expected to burn more oil and gas this year, EIA projected carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would rise from 4.783 billion metric tons in 2023 to a two-year high of 4.787 billion metric tons in 2024, before falling to what would be a five-year low of 4.720 billion metric tons in 2025 as fossil fuel use declines.
That compares with 4.584 billion metric tons in 2020, which was the lowest since 1983, as the COVID-19 pandemic sapped demand for energy.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)