Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Friday and were poised for a third straight weekly jump, buoyed by growing expectations that the U.S. central bank will soon start to cut interest rates.
Brent crude futures for August settlement, which expire on Friday, rose 41 cents, or 0.47% to $86.80 a barrel by 0439 GMT. The Brent contract for September was up 0.5% at $85.69 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for August delivery rose 50 cents, or 0.61%, to $82.24 a barrel.
Brent and WTI futures have gained nearly 2% so far this week, with both benchmarks also on track for gains of slightly more than 6% month on month – erasing losses earlier in May.
“Crude oil edged higher despite weak near-term fundamentals,” said ANZ analysts, referring to unexpected gains in U.S. crude inventories despite expectations of a drawdown during the summer peak demand.
“… prices gained amid a risk-on tone across broader market… triggered by data that signalled further U.S. labour market weakness,” they added in a client note.
Growing expectations of an imminent Fed easing cycle
have sparked a risk rally
across stock markets. Traders are now pricing in a 64% chance of a first Fed cut in September, up from 50% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Easing interest rates could be a boon for oil as it could increase demand from consumers.
The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure for inflation by the Fed, is due at 1230 GMT and could provide further clues on the interest rate cut timeline this year.
Oil supplies have also come under pressure from weather-related disruptions which could worsen in the coming weeks. Heavy rains have caused Ecuador’s production to decline by 100,000 barrels a day over the past week, FGE Energy said on Friday.
The U.S. Gulf Coast, home to the bulk of the country’s energy and export infrastructure, could also be hit by adverse weather in coming days with the U.S. National Hurricane Center tracking at least one weather system that could become a cyclone and headed towards the region.
A recovery in physical refining margins also buoyed markets, with the Singapore complex refining margins averaging $1 higher in June at around $3.60 a barrel from May.
“Recent improvement in light distillate cracks has improved complex refining margins in Asia… Heading to 3Q, we expect refining margins to remain around current levels. We expect gasoline to continue rising through to August, though this will be offset by diesel cracks, which are expected to ease amid lengthening East of Suez balances,” said Ivan Mathews, head of Asia refining at FGE.
(Reporting by Shariq Khan in New York and Trixie Yap in Singapore; Editing by Stephen Coates and Kim Coghill)