Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that whoever wins the U.S. presidential election in November will have limited tools to significantly boost domestic oil supply next year.
Strategic petroleum reserve stocks are low and regulatory easing may only significantly boost U.S. long-run supply, the bank said in a client note.
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday after the release of U.S. economic data that beat analyst estimates, raising investor expectation for increased crude oil demand from the world’s largest energy consumer.
The Brent crude futures contract for September traded around $82 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September was around $78.
Goldman Sachs expects Brent prices to range from $75 to $90 in 2025, assuming trend-like growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and steady oil demand as well as market balancing by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and affiliates.
“While there is a lot of uncertainty about trade policy, tariffs on U.S. crude imports seem unlikely.”
Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to take a hit of as much as $11 per barrel next year as a result of weaker demand and GDP in a scenario where the U.S. imposes an across-the-board tariff of 10% on goods imports.
However, tariffs could impact oil prices by as much as $19 if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts beyond 2025 due to a higher core inflation rate, with Brent at $62 in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to a current forecast of $81, the bank said.
(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Sandra Maler and Christopher Cushing)