** J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research maintains Brent oil averaging $80 per barrel (bbl) in 4Q24
** Crude prices are set for 10% weekly gains as investors weighed the prospect of a wider Middle East conflict, Brent crude futures trading at $78.71 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures trading at $74.79 a barrel
** However, Brent and WTI fell 17% and 16% respectively in Q3, as lower oil demand, especially from China, weighed on an oversupplied market
** J.P. Morgan says given the low level of oil inventories, odds favor a sustained geopolitical premium in crude price until the conflict is resolved
** “Shifting dynamics in the Middle East might create a greater urgency to replenish inventories, thereby realigning the price of oil with its fundamental level”
** Notes that Israel attacking Iran’s oil facilities is unlikely to gain favor with the U.S. administration, which could disrupt oil markets before presidential elections
** Also sees a low probability of Iran targeting energy flows from Gulf Arab states, given the recently upgraded diplomatic ties with GCC countries and Israel
(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)