U.S. natural gas futures rose on Tuesday to hover near a 23-month high hit in the previous session, on an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, and forecasts for more cold weather in January leading to increased heating demand than what was previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.4 cents, or 2.6%, to $3.75 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:18 a.m. EST (1318 GMT). Prices had climbed to their highest since January 2023 on Monday before settling 2.5% lower on short-term warmer weather forecasts.
“As most of the marginal demand comes from the residential and commercial sectors due to heating needs, weather is the most important factor that determines the gas price in winter. We still have a lot of winter left and the uncertainty about weather tends to push up gas prices,” said Zhen Zhu, managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Company in Oklahoma City.
Financial firm LSEG estimated 376 heating degree days over the next two weeks, compared with 370 estimated on Monday.
“Much of today’s rebound appears prompted by less bearish temperature outlooks within the 6–14-day portion of the NOAA forecast,” energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Mild temperatures are expected to subside later next week in limiting downside possibilities, Ritterbusch said.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.6 bcfd so far in December from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 103 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, rising to 132.6 bcfd this week from 124.7 bcfd in the prior week.
Meanwhile, Venture Global LNG wants to extend the force majeure at its Calcasieu Pass liquefied natural gas plant in Louisiana to 2025, delaying first supplies under long-term contracts to three years after starting production, according to its initial public offering document.
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were slightly up on Wednesday in thin trading ahead of Christmas holidays across Europe, as uncertainty remains over Russian gas flows when the Ukraine gas transit deal expires at the year-end.
(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Porter and Tomasz Janowski)