Russia pumped gas on Monday to European customers via Ukraine for one of the last days before a key transit deal expires at the end of the year, marking the almost complete loss of Russia’s once mighty hold over the European gas market.
Supplies of Russian gas via Ukraine are due to stop from the early hours of Jan. 1 after the current five-year deal expires. Kyiv has refused to negotiate a new transit deal as its war against Russia approaches the end of a third year.
Russia and the Soviet Union spent half a century building up a major share of the European gas market, which at its peak stood at 35%, but the war in Ukraine has all but destroyed that business for Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled gas giant.
Moscow has lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which prompted the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
The slump in Russian gas supplies to Europe pushed gas prices to an all-time high, stoking inflation and raising the cost of living across the continent.
The end of the transit deal is unlikely to cause a repeat of the 2022 EU gas price rally as the remaining volumes are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 – only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
President Vladimir Putin said last week that there was no time left this year to sign a new Ukrainian gas transit deal, laying the blame on Kyiv for refusing to extend the agreement.
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha – now under the control of Ukrainian soldiers – in Russia’s Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia. In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut, including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic that was blown up in 2022.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline routes to Europe are the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Turkey under the Black Sea. Turkey sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
DISPUTES
Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss of the EU’s gas markets.
Disruptions to gas supplies have also sparked numerous contractual and political disputes.
On Monday, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean ordered his government to start preparing for the possible nationalisation of gas company Moldovagaz, which is 50%-owned by Gazprom.
Gazprom had said it plans to suspend gas exports to Moldova from 0500 GMT on Jan. 1 due to unpaid debts. Moldova disputes it is in arrears for previous gas shipments and accuses Russia of destabilising the country, which Moscow denies.
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Friday that Slovakia would consider reciprocal measures against Ukraine such as halting back-up electricity supplies if Kyiv stops the gas transit from Jan. 1.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Fico on Saturday of opening a “second energy front” against Ukraine on the orders of Russia. Slovakia denied the accusation.
Gazprom said that it will send 42.4 million cubic metres of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Monday, a volume in line with recent days.
Reuters reported last month that Gazprom is making the assumption that no more gas will flow to Europe via Ukraine after Dec. 31 in its internal planning for 2025.
Ukraine could consider continued transit of Russian gas on the condition that Moscow does not receive money for the fuel until after the war, Zelenskiy said earlier this month.
(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Ros Russell)