U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
EIA projected dry gas production will rise from 103.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024 to 104.5 bcfd in 2025 and 107.2 bcfd in 2026. That compares with a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 90.3 bcfd in 2024 to 90.6 bcfd in 2025 before easing to 90.4 bcfd in 2026.
If correct, 2026 would be the first time demand declines since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic cut usage for the fuel.
The latest projections for 2025 were higher than EIA’s 103.7 bcfd supply and 90.2 bcfd demand forecasts in December.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 14.1 bcfd in 2025 and 16.2 bcfd in 2026, up from a record 12.0 bcfd in 2024.
As renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants, the agency projected U.S. coal production would fall from a 60-year low of 511.7 million short tons in 2024 to 476.2 million tons in 2025, which would be the lowest since 1962, before edging up to 476.6 million tons in 2026.
EIA projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels would rise from a four-year low of 4.767 billion metric tons in 2024 to 4.791 billion metric tons in 2025 as coal and petroleum use increases, before easing to 4.782 billion metric tons in 2026 as oil and gas use declines.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Nia Williams)