The International Energy Agency needs to revamp how it writes its annual energy outlook to reflect real-world scenarios, not to bolster its current focus on the global energy transition, according to a report released on Wednesday by the agency’s former oil director.
The report named Energy Delusions was written by former IEA oil director Neil Atkinson for the National Center for Energy Analytics, a think tank, and Atkinson said it is aimed at influencing the new administration of President Donald Trump.
The report identifies 23 assumptions made by the agency that led to what it calls a flawed conclusion that the global oil economy would peak by 2030, and no new oil and gas investment is needed.
The report says the IEA underestimates growth in emerging oil markets as well as in plastic and petrochemicals markets, and overestimates the pace of electric vehicle adoption.
KEY QUOTE
“The promotional aspirations and flawed assumptions underlying IEA’s peak-demand scenarios have serious implications, given the obvious global economic and security considerations in planning for and delivering reliable, affordable energy supplies,” the report said.
BACKGROUND
The Paris-based IEA has provided research and data to industrialized governments for more than half a century to guide policy on energy security, supply and investment. The United States provides around a quarter of the group’s funding.
In recent years the IEA has broadened its focus beyond oil and gas supply to include clean energy as member governments seek input on meeting climate goals.
That shift drew criticism from Republicans in Congress, and Trump’s campaign last year identified the IEA’s climate focus as an issue he could address as president.
KEY CONTEXT
The IEA’s focus on a clean energy transition clashes with Trump’s agenda of boosting the traditional oil and gas industries. It has also angered other global oil producer countries including Saudi Arabia.
(Reporting by Valerie Volcovici; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)